"It is a very interesting watch. The lack of a major flu season in 2019, set up the 'dry tinder' to be taken out by the next major illness, and in walks Covid. Early Covid modelling seems to be the main problem, as it was erring too much on the side of caution, and out quite a ways. It is still early, but excess mortality shows the mortality spike wasn't too bad during Covid."
The early "modelling" - which I clearly recall being quoted in the fear-mongering media would lead to as many as 75,0000 deaths in Australia and tens millions of deaths around the world - was inordinately inept, and continues to be to this day.
Even today, there are still so-called epidemiologists, "experts", commentators, journalists and even members of this forum that quote the mortality rate as a function of the number of reported cases, instead of the number of people that have become infected.
Then there are those alarmists that love to quote the total number of Covid-related deaths, without any understanding that it is the excess deaths that is the only meaningful metric.
And even when people have an understanding of the excess deaths, they incorrectly view them on a "point-in-time" basis, thereby failing to understand - because the median age of people succumbing to Covid is at, or above the average life expectancy - that the true excess death outcome is a function of continuum calculus.
This continuum accounting accommodates the extent to which Covid had the effect of merely bringing forward deaths by a few months, meaning that the period of excess deaths will end up being followed by a period of deficit deaths.
This "negative excess deaths" commenced in Sweden from the start of July - around 500 fewer deaths recorded over July and August. As a result, the excess death figure for Sweden, YTD, is 3,062 , down from 3,542 excess deaths for the period YTD to 30 June.
And negative excess deaths started to be seen for the first time in the USA in the last week of August.
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