Evening All,Got pretty close with my 16.5 call hey D ... like...

Evening All,

Got pretty close with my 16.5 call hey D ... like many here I must admit I didn't expect to see capitulation like this until tomorrow (funny how Friday's usually end up wth blood on the floor).

Nuts and bolts are this:

1) Cash in bank ... sorted. Nice to know that whilst there are other companies who have suffered ike us, at least we hold enough cash to make some serious in roads into getting this mine sorted out;
2) Markets ALWAYS over react. Not sure what you all do for a living however my professional experience is such that I look at something like to day and nod and smile (read professional experience instead of day trader experience). Seen it when the Russians defaulted, seen it during Asia crisis (been there done that and got the t-shirt). This is just another blip on the radar. Ultimately price action like today sorts the men / women from the boys / girls. Anyone who subscribes to EMH probably should have their head checked.
3) I do have a key concern around the debt. The reality is that the management will still raise the debt required however they will have to pay a substantial premium in terms of credit spread due to increasing risk aversion by global investors .... I have no doubts we will get it ... I wonder on what terms though. Sure as hell they won't be pretty .... risk premium on corporate bonds typically are 3% over the risk free rate (historically) ... reality is that you throw an additional liquidity premium and sovereign risk premium on top of this we could very well be looking at the US fed rate plus a few percent ... the saving grace is that AIM will be profitable enough to service this debt and then some. I hope that the company have done some sensitivity analysis on this to work out how best to structure this.
4) Demand for zinc? Well as far as I can tell this hasn't changed. China still growing, Europe growing, US growing (subprime loans are the equivelant of a loan from cash converters and still only account for a small proportion of the market - no material impact on consumer demand).

Ultimately this is market noise. I will be a lot more nervous in October when this has continued for another few months and when central banks start cutting rates because of an impending recesion. Fair value for AIM? Definitely a heck of a lot higher than this ... I hold and am confident. However I understand if others are not and my statements are made without regard for your personal circumstances. Good luck all.