Im down 60% on ARD so I may as well ride it out to the bitter end. I think we are all agreed that it is a pure silver play so where silver goes so shall ARD. With such a tiny Mkt Cap it dosnt need to be a huge NPV to turn this shareholding into a 5 to 10 bagger. Also when you consider it has $1.7b of in ground resource the potential is there. I do a comparitive calculation of mkt cap to resource for shares I look at and convert it to a per ounce gold valuation. ARD values its recoverable resource at $11.40 per ounce of gold. The average valuation for explorers is $30 which is a historical low. Once they get close or to production the resource valuation goes to $150 plus. For example PRU is $153, PGI is $213.
Right now we are at a critical point in the PM pricing going forward. There has been a desending triangle pattern forming over the last year with 3 touches at 26.15 and we are almost at the end of that formation. I have done a bit of reading on triangle formations and its a bit inconclusive. Many technical sites say triangles are usually a continuation pattern. i.e. the trend will move on in the same direction it entered and usually of a magnitude of the begining of the formation. Others say a desending triangle is a bearish formation. Both silver and gold have the same triangle in their chart.
I think we will know the answer soon.
ARD Price at posting:
5.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)