WLD 0.00% 4.5¢ wellard limited

Don't know about that P. Can't be sure we've hit the bottom but...

  1. 5,617 Posts.
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    Don't know about that P.
    Can't be sure we've hit the bottom but we gotta be pretty bloody close. I mean we all know the Co hasn't had a good start...I mean how many months of transport did they miss due to engine problems? Sure they're expending with respect to their fleet...now I'm no accountant...but I've run a number of successful businesses in my time.
    The thing that sets businesses apart is product demand and economies of scale. As I said wrt that other stock long time ago it was undervalued. They had the cyclical arguement over there I said nup it's undervalued due to insto suppression. Still in and still say that's the issue. But... in addition and it was LF (bless his heart...you know he got the shakes...kicking himself) that raised the point...it was also about diversification and growth potential. The diversification allays fear over the cyclical argument. Potential...really same as Wellard international recognition of superior quality product and source...Ozzie!
    So see real parallels with Wellard...debt?...sure...but it's not like they're investing in magic beans. You're talking what is it..half the global population above our heads and free trade agreements to boot...ASEAN....China. Now..Wellard doesn't grow the cattle but it sources it ships it and has on shore facilities to butcher it. Hotcopter has it right. He is aware of Chinese potential. They want it fresh and premium. I can go on about China for days. The upwardly mobile society is acquiring and demanding best quality. Australians...myself included cannot comprehend the speed of change there. I have personal experience of businesses that started in what looked like worst slum condions grow into modern factories of like 20000 squ metres in less than 10 years and we're talking domestiv sector growth of like 300% average annually. Cost of building is a paltry fraction of what it costs here. Now if you think a Chinese business is going to JV with any Ozzie player you have another thing coming. They won't. They want to see size i.e. secure in knowledge that supplier can deliver and they want consistency of product. They didn't invest with Wellard in a fantasy environment. The Chinese do it hard...trust me. They are incredibly industrious and astute spenders. The economics of slaughtering over there is favourable...highly favourable...and our much maligned major shareholder (who as I understand it...is legally obliged to not sell any of his holding for 2 years as of the time of the ipo)..has gotten us half that action. So... like I said...that's one city in one province in a country with over 30 provinces.

    Now have you ever heard anyone complain about the quality of Oz meat...anywhere in the world? It's a rhetorical question by the way. How so? Because we all know how bloody good it is! Trust me ...they're in on the secret too!
    So what do I see? I see this JV as a foot in the door of something much much bigger. When that kicks let me tell you others will pick up on the source and want the same deal or bigger...think unknown multiples. Thats just China.

    Then think ASEAN then think Middle East. Still always the optimist am I? Common P your salivating aren't ya? Fess up!
    So basically...yeah sheetyy start...no doubt sheety forthcoming divvy...but honestly personally never had expectations of a divvy given the start. See Co. is bringing new strategic personnel on board and agree that management could have been more sensitive to transparency issues but remember they're moving from private co. culture ( I don't account to anyone and indeed why would I make my private business public knowledge kind of mentality?) to a public company...big culture shock all in like 6 months!. And you have to admot they're getting a lot better on thid front.
    Anyway ...you don't start to see the similarities with the other share? I do... and seriously if you look at market cap and dmooth sailing...I'm seeing this baby multi bagging by the time our CEO even gets a chance to start cashing a few in...so question becomes one of entry and I don't want to comment on profitability issues until the accountants have had a chance to shred the hell out of the books...but I had no expectations that we were going to get a divvy...no expectations that the books were going to look even half decent on this ann.
    I entered after I knew ships were all good. Moderate entry...moderate partial down buy a couple of days ago. With all the pre-ann woe is me... I expect to see a tree shake and bounce up soon after this ann.

    Debt issues don't worry me at all at this time...CBA don't extend lines of credit on a whim...money is being spent wisely and ...well... let's let the accountants have a hard look and we'll talk again...eh?
    Glad your on board. Value your input.
    Cheers
 
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