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GOLDEN DRAGON CAPITAL Lithium Research
Prepared by: Brendan Jephcott July 2016


Lithium Industry Analysis 2016 How long will the Lithium Prices continue to rise for?

From 2015 to 2024, the market supply of Li-ion batteries for light vehicles is forecasted to total around $US221 billion (A$310 billion), according to Navigant Consulting. Current price predictions indicate that LCE may rise to over US$25,000 in 2016. Citigroup forecasts the price for lithium carbonate will continue to rise through to 2017 on supply availability concerns, while demand is likely to soar 64 percent by 2020 from 2015 levels

It is estimated that, even with a conservative growth rate of 10%, the global lithium demand will reach 20 million tonnes by 2020. However, considering the electric vehicle application for explosive growth, the expected growth rate is far more than this figure. With the promotion of electric vehicles, lithium carbonate consumption will usher in a steady and long-term growth projection for increased prices following a rise in consumption for electric vehicles30 . This rising demand is brought on by the fact new sources of lithium raw materials are needed and as things stand, currently there is not be enough lithium to supply the battery megafactories coming on-stream in the near future. The short to medium term growth in the lithium market will be limited by supply constraints, with few new operations being commissioned and four producers controlling much of the market. It is clear that new sources are required to meet growing demand.

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