'niceone general rule of thumb IMO is buy and selling into same market is relatively painless. I think if someone suggests that they're selling at a depressed value and buying at a premium, in the same market, is just wishful thinking by grumpy bears.'
That may have been the general rule of thumb for the last 20 years, but right now, in the time it takes to buy a house, then try and sell your existing one, a few months might go past and in that time things can and have changed for the worse for vendors.
People who can afford to upgrade will most likely have an existing property that will need to be sold to be able to fork out for the new one. In a slow and declining market, this will assist capitulation at lower than expected prices as time goes by. A guy at work was recently in this situation, he managed to sell at a slightly lower price than expected, and my parents are now in this situation, a little concerned that they might not be able to flog the family home in time, they do have a 5 month settlement on the new place up the coast however, the guy at work organised a 4 month settlement.
Another thing I am seeing is upgraders looking to buy, but holding off until their existing property sells. Two at work are not able to sell for the price they expected so are not buyers yet. They say that if they can't get the price they want they will just sit tight. This becomes another cycle that probably hasn't been seen for a generation. If you can't sell one, you cant buy one, because these days to afford one you need to sell one to buy one. Didn't used to be like that 20 years ago, but only becomes a problem when sales come to a halt, which is what I am seeing in the area I am looking. It all says wait and see to me.
