Wesfarmers and Lynas, page-57

If Wes made an offer I would laugh at $2.25. It was valued under Nick Curtis at 5 billion. Considering the demand now known in the future, the future could see a value of 10 billion + once all is running well and WA and US up and running and there was consistent earnings.

So how would Amanda see it? Forget todays price as we will be out of this virus in a few months and back to growth or recovery in the world economy.
What will change? First and foremost it will be to changes to supply away from China for certain things, REE being one of them.

Lynas wont need to go begging for money as the Japanese are willing to extend loans like they did previous when Lynas was in a much worse position, Lynas also got a cut in interest when there was a risk of Lynas not being a going concern. Any low ball offer in todays price would still be seen for what it is.

So Lynas we could say is backed by the Japanese as a last resort. Would Japan want to be at the mercy of Wes and pure profit play? Are they comfortable knowing they have a guaranteed supply of Lynas? a few hundred million is nothing in the grand scheme of things considering Toyota and Japanese car makers will be going electric, not counting Sony and other industries etc. Hundreds of billions in that aspect of the economy.

This is without the territorial disputes with China and those islands for Japan to guarantee supply, so funding from the Japanese needs to be considered. China wont stop in their quest to unite their claimed territories.

Wes will have to court the financial backers and bond holders also. Japan funded Lynas out of national security and Blue Line in the US will be significant also. Mountain Pass owned now by the Chinese will be a thorn but that supply cant be guaranteed unless its nationalised. These statements are made on the anti Chinese rhetoric from Republicans and Trumps desire to be independent of China in the future.

Now after considering all the politics behind Lynas and the countries and situations involved, how would Wes get it? Another $2.25 an offer would be as stupid as the last one.

So we go to $1 share above the last as a temptation. $3.25? $4.50 at 3 billon? what is a value for Amanda to recommend we accept? Any deal would have to meet Japanese concerns. I think maybe Wes made an uneducated decision with a bid on Lynas. They thought we were desperate junkies in need of a fix. Lynas in my humble simple opinion is way undervalued and a takeover would be a big gamble for Wes at the price I see it is worth, Wes wouldn't offer.
I would be rolling in it now also if it wasn't for the 10-1. But the last offer was close to my average. Still I want my pay day so I will accept $4.50 only because I can move the capital to another stock and make the gains I was expecting from Lynas. Sound fair? I know I am irrelevant.

One note also, I did see when the take over was offered a broker value Lynas at around $8.40 a share if I am not mistaken.

DYOR I am only thinking out loud as I think politics will need to be taken in to account when I speculate about LYC price and a speculated takeover.