Wesfarmers Investment, page-13

This how now become a Choose Your Own Adventure book. The various outcomes are almost impossible to comprehend.

Can't wait to see what Amanda says. I feel confident that the board recommendation will be to reject the proposal.

I'd say that an investor like WES with deep pockets and infinitely more pull than Lynas would just squash Yeo Inc. They'd happily drop $500m to start building LAMP 2 outside of Malaysia and just watch DrM and Yeo crap their dacks and move mountains to keep Lynas and the jobs and supply chain. Closing Lynas is one thing. But closing to only to have it reopen bigger and better elsewhere is a huge slap in their face politically and the Chinese would no longer need to reward their pets.

Today this outcome is far more likely than it was yesterday.

I remember arguing a couple of years back that Lynas could 10 bag in price in five or eight years. This was pre DrM and the SP was $1. It was based on NdPr climbing to $60-70/kg and Lynas increasing production by 20% yoy. It was optimistic but 20% compounds is an increase of 2.5-3.5x current production and with Lynas COP and if prices do get up to $65/kg the profits in that support a $10 price.

$3 a year ago and I was looking like I was a genius.

I still think the fundamentals are there. This WLP is a hiccup and in a years time we'll be $3-4 as the EV evolution looms.

$2.25? Haha. No way. I'd think about $5. That's a 50% premium to what a fully licensed Lynas would be trading at, as per the requirement of that offer.

There is so much more to this offer, the politics involving Japan, China and Malaysia alone are worth the price of admission. I'm sure someone has said get the popcorn by now, but really, get some.

(Does anyone think Yeo is so dumb that she'll see this as an opportunity to wedge Lynas? To threaten to use her 'power' to hinder a deal like this? She could drag on any licence matter for years through the courts and potentially ruin opportunities like this.)