Not sure what that analysis is, but longer term prices will go...

Not sure what that analysis is, but longer term prices will go up or down depending on the technology and fuels available to meet demand, and the news here is not good for LNG absent contracts that pay for capacity. Coal marginal costs are below 2 pesos per kWh, and PV solar in the Philippines can be put in now about 2 pesos per kWh. LNG marginal cost in an SCGT is more like 4 pesos. The plant will be rarely dispatched if it comes online at all. WESM will always prefer to dispatch Avion and San **riel, FirstGen’s merchant capacity in Batangas running on Malampaya gas — cheaper marginal cost — than any LNG-fired generator. Those plants are dispatched in the teens most of the year, and a little better for parts of the hot season. San **riel now has a contract with Meralco as a mid cycle plant, for a handful of years. But it is an efficient CCGT — much preferred to the SCGTs at Pagbilao, if they ever come on-line. And please, no nonsense about adding the back-end there — unless you can show me the money.