The 15th is just when they 500mil will likely be approved.....

The 15th is just when they 500mil will likely be approved.. would FAR really issue the shares that day on approval?
The shares are said to be issued progressively as the allottees are identified though.
I think it's important to point out that FAR will be identifying allottees, not just Hartleys. Considering ME was in the UK during the trading halt that announced the $34mil CR i think we can expect some fairly solid investment from UK firms that aren't likely to sell out for a quick profit.
However, biggest concern imo is exactly to who and how many shares Hartleys end up allocating..
Even if the majority were to solid investors.. $9mil worth of shares on the market would reap havoc considering on the best days we've only had about $2mil turnover.

So in terms of a simple supply demand scenario, sure we could see a re rating lower but I can't see a 5.7c..
Largely because I'd say any smart money would still be on the sidelines at this point, waiting for the extension for a start and looking to see exactly what direction the CR takes.
When there's certainty in those respects, demand will increase to lap up excess liquidity, especially if the SP were to fall below 6c.
Basically I think there's extreme volatility to come but I cant see FAR slipping below 6c for more than a few split seconds if it were to happen