West Papua is a different kettle of fish to East Timor because...

West Papua is a different kettle of fish to East Timor because
Indonesia has ensured that another East Timor liberation is
off the menu by its trsnsplanting hundreds of thousands
of Indonesian nationals into West Papua.

Given that the US owned McMoRan is the economic powerhouse
of this region, its economic clout is of key importance to the future of the region.

Indonesia has two important requirements of resource companies:

Under its COWS (conracts of work) the Indonesian Government
requires foreign ownership of the resource to be sold down to 49%
over a set prriod and and that raw minerals have to get a secondary
treatment/refining before exporting. While in the shorter term,
the security of an Indonesian West Papua regime me be McMoRan's
preferred option, the erosian of its equity and the financial impost
on the company by processing on site may lead it to support
other regimes.

There are essentially two liberation models, IMO; annexure to PNG
or the formation of a seperate country.

The latter would be a risky/uncertain model because West Papua
does not have the indigenous talent and leadership (unlike East Timor)
to form a free State.

Annexure to PNG would also be a scary prospect for a mammoth mine
with the spectre of another Bougainville in prospect. The PNG Government
should have resolved the Bouganville debarkle within a year or so permitting
the re-opening of the mine before it was properly trashed by the locals.
The shell of Bouganville (like Chernoble) is a monumental reminder
to foreign investors that a PNG investment is always a risky project.

That said, the usual PNG 15% government equity requirement in resource
projects with the native rent thrown in may be a better long term prospect
for McMoRan than loosing 51% of Freeport over time.

MM