Not sure that's too accurate Aus. I think Lynas lost, Malaysia lost and Wesfarmers lost. The winner will be WA when the new C&L is built.
I don't think Wesfarmers will end up with Lynas now, they have played this game badly as it turns out. If they want Lynas they will have to pay serious money for it now. The next offer of $3 will barely register as a blip to shareholders. Lynas NEXT will be in full view next Tuesday.
The Wesfarmers shareholders will want no part of Lynas at $4-5 given how much they hated it at $2.25.
Malaysia would extract their pound of flesh from WES if they end up owners. SMSL will not go away and there will always be a battle to fight. Wesfarmers lose.
Lynas is great for Malaysia. Turn WLP into Condisoil and ship it overseas. Keep the employment and economic benefit is has to offer. This scenario is now off the table. Lynas will vacate Malaysia before they ever pay income tax there (10-15 years). Highly likely the WLP will stay in a pdf. All the employment at Lynas and upstream will go. Malaysia lose.
Lynas forced to operate in a high wage, high CapEx, high union controlled country now (mitigated sovereign risk aside). Profit margins will tighten with higher COP. Lynas lose.
The whole thing is quite sad really. Many posts in these forums have an underlying current of enjoyment from one or more parties losing out more than they have.
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