Westfarners playing games or not interested anymore?, page-31

i think you are correct china will not be so stupid. Google any of the big car manufatures 8 years ago with Tesla. Several USD Billion was spent on 3 phase technology to eliminate Magnets in Hybrids. Prices came down in time the switch was never made. Today there is much more research in Mix mode Motors. With higher efficencies and much less magnets than the motors today. I do not think Price will cause the magnets to be taken out even if they triple from todays level. There is only a few $100s of NdPr in a full Hybrid. A verry small % of total price of car. IF china causes any disruption of supply they will be seen as an unreliable supplier. The manufaturses will live with the PMM going up a few $100.00 . They will not tolarate a supply source that will cause them not to ship the vehicle. One thing I agree with Aus on, inventory have been reduced during price declines of last 20 months. Much of this run up is rebuilding of inventories to protect against a risky supply from China. Minimal inventory iis a key to low cost manufacturing. The manufactures will want to reduce dependence on China if they continue to use REO as a weapon not a product. Lynas cannot meet the total demand. Do not look at how much REO China ships. A window motor not being avalable stops the shipment of a car just as much as a traction motor. It is in the tens of small motors that go into a vehicle that most of Chinas PM material is used for. Japan has a lock on larger motors. I recently bought a high end SUV. I am up to 23 PMMs in it. i do not think i have found them all. Recently I realised the emergency brake that use to be a pedal is now a motor. The vehicle has two sunroofs. Each has seperate motors for window and sun screen.
This is the secound REO scare in less than 10 years. Vehicles are more dependent now than ever on PMs this will not be easily forgoten and the longer it lasts the more vivid the memory. The question is not will removing PMMs add weight and decrease efficency a little it will. The question is will keeping them cause production disruptions with China as the main supplier. I agree with AUS about the cost of and time of entry for the wanabees. If this gets ugly having a few of those wanabees, in production would keep REO as a real allternative.