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Westpac. Looking forward, page-10

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    "The despair apparent a month ago, when Australians were bracing for a severe outbreak and prolonged shutdown, has lifted materially but consumers are justifiably cautious," Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said.

    "People have confidence in this country," Mr Morrison told parliament.

    "I have confidence in this country and I believe this country will bounce back and bounce strongly under the leadership of this government."

    Consumer confidence as measured by the monthly Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey jumped 16.4 per cent for May, recapturing much of the 17.7 per cent slump in April.



    Consumer confidence lifting 16.4% in May?

    Looks like there just might be one heck of a spending spree around the corner, with some people even having more money in their pocket to spend (e.g. if a casual was on less than $750 per week before they received the job keeper payment) than before the crisis. With around 650,000 Australians accessing an avearge of $8,000 in super each, and over $4 billion extra washing around the economy, retail just might pick up a tad.

    In Queensland, NSW, and the NT, from tomorrow (Monday in WA) cafes and restaurants can finally seat people at tables. That will give another lift to those states. In several states, local tourism will start up again more dramatically in June, and by July 10th, people will be travelling (and staying in holiday accomodation) widely in several states.


    PM buoyed by strong bounce in confidence

    Colin Brinsden
    Wednesday, 13 May 2020 4:16 pm


    Josh Frydenberg is awaiting results of a coronavirus test after he had a coughing fit in parliament.Josh Frydenberg is awaiting results of a coronavirus test after he had a coughing fit in parliament. Credit: AAP

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison says Australia will be in a position to "bounce back" once the pandemic has passed, buoyed by a strong lift in consumer confidence.

    Labor has kept pressure on Mr Morrison after he declared the economy would "snap back" in the post-virus period.

    But he tweaked his language when quizzed on Wednesday.

    "People have confidence in this country," Mr Morrison told parliament.

    "I have confidence in this country and I believe this country will bounce back and bounce strongly under the leadership of this government."

    Consumer confidence as measured by the monthly Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey jumped 16.4 per cent for May, recapturing much of the 17.7 per cent slump in April.

    The much needed boost to confidence followed last Friday's announcement of a three-step plan by the national cabinet to lift coronavirus-related restrictions in the months ahead.

    "The despair apparent a month ago, when Australians were bracing for a severe outbreak and prolonged shutdown, has lifted materially but consumers are justifiably cautious," Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said.

    The bounce in confidence also comes in what Assistant Treasurer Michael Sukkar described as a "enthusiastic take-up" of the JobKeeper program.

    "(It) has provided an extraordinary lifeline now for 850,000 Australian businesses. ... that cover some 5.7 million employees," he told parliament.

    Whether this confidence boost translates into a renewed retail spending spree remains to be seen with wage growth slow, and likely to get even worse as unemployment spikes to levels not seen since the 1990s recession.

    Economists expect Thursday's employment figures for April will show the number of people employed tumbled by 550,000 as the lockdown to shield Australians from the pandemic began.

    The statistics are forecast to show the unemployment rate spike to 8.3 per cent from 5.2 per cent in March, the highest level since August 1997.

    Tuesday's much-anticipated economic statement from Treasurer Josh Frydenberg was seen as largely a re-run of his previous thoughts on a COVID-19 hit economy.

    He reiterated the unemployment rate is expected to peak at 10 per cent in the June quarter, coupled with a 10 per cent slump in economic growth.

    Mr Frydenberg revealed on Wednesday he had tested negative to COVID-19 following a coughing fit during a parliamentary speech on Tuesday.

    Other new data showed annual wages growth eased heading into the pandemic, in tandem with "relatively stable but slow economic growth", Australian Bureau of Statistics chief economist Bruce Hockman said.

    The wage price index - a key measure used by both the Reserve Bank and Treasury - grew by 0.5 per cent in the March quarter, with the annual rate slipping to 2.1 per cent from 2.2 per cent earlier.

    This is below the current rate of inflation at 2.2 per cent and remains well below the long-run average of three per cent.

    Labor jumped on the figures showing wage growth at a two-year low, even before even before lockdowns began.

    "This result adds to the overwhelming evidence that Australia entered this crisis from a position of weakness, not strength," shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers said.

 
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