Comment: The BTD (Buy The Dip) Mob went to Starbucks this morning, then wandered Fifth Avenue buying for their Loved Ones expensive Belgian Chocolates, orchids flown in from Brazil, and frilly French lingerie. They didn't hit their Wall Street offices until about 3.30 - saw the market was well down, and in the matter of half an hour, sent it up about 90 points. Nice work for half an hour. The major market indices finished more or less flat.
NewHighs/NewLows 92/1. NH>NL. The ratio of NH/(NH+NL) is at 99.2% – that remains in the “no sell” zone (above 80%).
Below is an intra-day chart (10-min intervals) of the SPY, the ETF for the SP500. This chart clearly shows the last half-hour reversal on big volume.
While most of the movement today was down the action intra-day saw lots of overlapping. That's not the stuff of bear markets. The final half hour was a bullish impulsive move up.
Technical Comment on the Dow 30:
The Dow finished at 12878.3. That close is marginally above the close on 2 May, 2011. Indicators: Stochastic: 81.4. Overbought. Below its signal line. Above 80. RSI.9 is at 65.9. Below 70. Caution MACD Histogram. Marginally below Zero. Neutral. MACD. Marginally below Zero. Neutral. CCI.14: +60.3. Positive
The Dow 30 remains marginally above the 10-Day Moving Average. Short term the chart is now in a sideways consolidation. Range:12743-12925. That's only 180 points.
Theory says that consolidations at the high are bullish. I dunno. The indicators still need to work off some excess before I'd think another major push up was likely. But the action today was bullish. So, we'll have to wait and see which way this breaks. If 12743 breaks to the downside, then a test of the 30 Jan low (12529) is likely.
The medium term trend is up. Short term trend is undecided.
Yesterday’s fall in Australia was in anticipation of a fall in Europe and America. Europe was down a bit. America ended flat. It looks like Australia might have some catching up today. AUD/JPY was strong last night (yellow candle on my chart below) - that supports a move up today. Our market will probably remain within its trading range. But - you never know. Watch the market.
(20min delay)