That was a pretty good effort
@sabine
I can see you are trying very hard (but perhaps 'over thinking it' a little).
Keep working on your analysis, and it will all start to come together and make sense.
To be honest, there are no right or wrong or exact answers, I just place what is going on the way I see it, and what makes sense to me (from my reading of the price and volume, combined with my past experience), and I am willing to adjust my thinking if subsequent trading does not agree with my analysis, or if sentiment obviously changes for some reason.
Yes, the potential accumulation zone on the weekly chart is the high of the widespread downbar on high volume @8.9cps, and either the low of that bar @5.8cps or the low of the next bar @6.3cps.
I prefer the 6.3cps bar as that was kind of like a secondary test towards the downside (whereas the initial bar perhaps included some kind of mini shakeout, where price rammed down to 5.8cps before recovering).
The 5.8cps level is for me 'last gasp' support, rather than firm support.
So either of those levels is probably the correct answer.
I prefer the 6.3cps level, because of the secondary test, and also because if I was trading it, I would probably want to 'get out' if that level was clearly broken - and if I can get out half a cent higher (than 5.8cps), then I potentially limit my losses a little.
So the weekly level for where the trend may change and underlying sentiment may become bullish is 8.9cps.
As you said, you are looking for widespread downbars on high volume. This is price action that may have either trapped existing holders into a losing position (therefore making them potentially weak holders), or where previous holders may have been shaken out, and their positions were taken over my new accumulators.
Finding the same daily level is relatively easy to work out. Just look for where the widespread downbars on high volume are, similar to how you pick the weekly bar, and then mark the high. It will often be at a slightly different (but quite similar) level, it is effectively 'fine tuning' the weekly level.
(this is because the weekly bar is usually made up of 4 or 5 daily bars, and the daily shakeout may not have actually begun on the first bar, so just look for where price sliced lower with an increased spread and volume, and mark that level)
On the AJM daily chart that level is 8.4cps, which also coincides nicely with the line marking the congestion @8.3cps (these levels often match up very well)
As you can see the price action respected these levels very well.....which in some way helps to confirm the levels.
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cheers
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