what’s op worth now + with exploration upside?, page-17

“I believe you to be a very genuine poster and that is how you come across.”
Thanks Vendor, and I think the same of you and your posts.

Like I said before we all have our own methods and I often use the one you describe so no arguments with you.
However ABU is close enough to my buy zone (based on the chart I posted) and I think it’s much too undervalued for me to not buy while it’s down here. I didn't buy just after a down trend began. It was already down close to 50% over a 5-6 month period and I do like my entry price for what I am buying.
As for the average down or up argument we can just disagree on that one.
You will get the better price averaging up if it gets into the low 3’s, I will have the better price if it’s near the low now.
For me it’s not a competition though.

Re: "Hypothetical scenario.....
What happens if, with economic conditions the way they are, what happens if ABU spend $20m on exploration, they then need to raise more money and dilute the price further and then TAM goes to the wall and they no longer have their joint partner."

I have what I consider a more realistic and more likely scenario:

If TAM goes to the wall as you say might happen, we get to buy their plant at a very good price. There is no competition for it other than someone that would have to dismantle, move and reassemble it (at more cost for them).
We would be the obvious buyer since we don’t need to relocate it.
Even without this plant, we are already looking at the alternative of a gravity plant at very low capital cost.
We also recently announced the exploration budget for this year and it is $12mill not $20mill.
We have nearly $26mill so we should have around $14mill left over less maybe a couple of mill for admin/scoping study costs.
Chances are we will toll treat within a year with plenty of cash still in hand with no need to raise any funds at all.
If we do build our own plant, we will have $12-14mill cash on hand and an excellent project which will easily attract debt funding if that’s what the company goes for.
If any placement is needed it can be small because the capital cost will be low and we will have cash and can use some debt.
I doubt that we would need to dilute by much more than 10% if at all (not at all if toll treating).
Well before any possible need for any funds we will have a scoping study within the month to allow the market to value this stock with more confidence.
Then we have an exploration program (already underway) much bigger than what we have had to date at OP which is likely to boost the jorc resource by a minimum 50% in my opinion and probably much more.
After all we are going to trench and sample around 2-3000ms of know mineralised veins this season compared to just 726ms to date -with the 726ms already giving us a resource of 427,000oz cut or 565,000oz no top cut.
By increasing the length of trenched veins by a factor of 3-4 compared to current, combined with drilling, what are the chances of not increasing the jorc very significantly (and the sp with it!)?
Even if markets weaken further from here, with the scoping study and a resource upgrade I can see a much higher sp over the next few months on very significant news flow.

I really do think the scenario I describe is much more likely than the one you describe.