Source Globe and Mail, & BaystreetShares in Toronto plummeted on...

Source Globe and Mail, & Baystreet

Shares in Toronto plummeted on massive volume, as panicked investors pushed the S&P/TSX index below 9,000 points for the first time since January, 2005. The S&P/TSX ended the day off its lows, but still down 5.6 %, or 534.98 points, to 9,065.20. Volume was about 1.2 billion shares at the end of the day, and was so heavy in the morning that trading glitches halted 38 stocks. The daily volume average, since the beginning of the year, is about 403.2 million.
The TSX closed down 535.02 to 9065.16. It is down 16.1 % on the week, or 1,738 points.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed its eighth consecutive day of losses down 128 points, to 8,451.19 points, or 1.5 %. The benchmark index had plunged 696 points at the open, dropping below 8,000 points for the first time since March, 2003. Later in the day, it surged for a gain of 311 points before giving back those, too. For the week, the Dow lost 18.2%, or 1,873.81 points.

The broader S&P 500 fell 1.2 %, or 10.69 points, to 899.23. For the week, the index lost 18.2%, or 199.96 points.

Anvil closed down C$2.98 or A$3.93 (11.83%) on heavier volume of 702.02k

First Quantum down C$1.80 to C$22.01 (7.56%).

Copper fell more than 9 % to its lowest point since January 2006. Copper is now very close to $4,000, the average cost of production, according to some analysts. Others say average costs are just above $3,000 a tonne. Data showing a 59% surge in copper inventories at warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange also hit sentiment.

The smaller companies, they are finished right now," Mr. Lundin Chairman of the Ludin Group of companies said, adding that "the exploration game is going to be the last one to come back. That's a very tough business." Lundin Mining shares have lost nearly a third of their value in a week and almost 50% in a month. On Monday, UBS Securities analysts Brian MacArthur and Onno Rutten cut 2009 metal price assumptions by an average of 30%. The target price for Lundin's shares was reduced by 59 % to $3.50 (Canadian).

Scotia Capital followed suit Wednesday, sharply cutting 2009 metal price assumptions and stock targets.
The new forecasts "reflect our view that the global credit crisis is likely to result in a more severe cyclical downturn than we were already forecasting," analysts Lawrence Smith and Alex Terentiew said in a report.
Scotia cut 2009 copper price assumptions by 31% cent to $2.25 (U.S.) a pound from $3.25.

If a turnaround is engineered in the coming days, it would mark the fourth time in recent memory that markets have rebounded from significant downturns at the end of October.
“There seems to be something very peculiar about this time of the year on the equity markets,” said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist for BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. “The last three major downturns all bottomed in the second week of October – the tech crash in 2002, 1998's decline and the 1990 downturn that came after Iraq invaded Kuwait.”

So John to answer your question. Yes. If we are not at the bottom we have to be getting close. If copper falls below cost of production for a lot of marginal copper miners, plants will eventually slow or close. Anvil is in the fortunate position to be in the lowest cost producer quartile.

KKR