Your quite right Punters BUT a great deal depends on how you...

Your quite right Punters BUT a great deal depends on how you INTERPRET what happened today particularly in reference to how one determines WHO the buyers were.

The stock has had a large swing up of 7 cents from open(29.5) to a high(36.5) yesterday.Now we all know that this stock is readily traded by day traders,and once JPM let the world know they were in in an even bigger way the daytraders were always going to get stuck in.But You and I know that there must be genuine buyers/accumulators that daytraders must work off or sell to,if you like,to create the demand for them to take profit.They also sell to a proportion of their own ilk that trade a little longer in the term stakes,say anywhere from a couple of days to a week, on the trend.

The selling today was the second category of trader taking profits imho and was in a defined range that engulfed the previous close and its high.Whatsmore it broke the previous high in the process which means,at the very least,it has taken out some of the 38c resistance in the process.

Why didnt it take it out completely?

Well imo the first reason being given in the second paragraph,the second being we havnt seen the end of the fund/s playing this quite yet.Does one honestly believe that any other party that wants in at not too far above what JPM has taken position at,WILL pay a large premum on what JPM have.

NOT on your sweet bippy!

These accumulators know the volume/liquidity this stock offers,and they know as well as anybody there will be a decent short term trader overhang and they are readily taken out if one simply reflects some of this PERCEIVED resistance at 38c or slightly above.

In a word the stock is being MANIPULATED.

Now I know you will roll out the old "but sellers are sellers and why are they selling"

But like I say this is purely dependant on how you proportion these sellers between ones taking profit in the short term and those taking profit from further down the buy line and balance this with the % of accumulators Vs traders.

This is purely a personal judgement BUT will be reflected upon via hindsight next week.

The chart can now go several ways,each option of which we all would be well aware,so I wont go into descriptions.However all but one intimate further strengthening of the sp technically.Today reflected that strengthening and on the basis that the next annmnt MAY be a bullish offtake annmnt effectively securing the sales for the zinc and combining that with a much higher % of stock that has been accumulated through the 30's,then 38c could be very much history post this annmnt,if not immediately then not long after on the buying pressure that will build on the stock as the available overhang dissappears,in other words yet another tightening of supply of tradeable shares.

One can like it or not,but close to another 6% of stock has effectively been removed from the market yesterday and POSSIBLY a few more today.

Hindsights a wonderful thing.So no Im not going to invoke the "ostrich effect",Im invoking the HINDSIGHT EFFECT and punt on this sp holding at the current level as per todays trade and tightening prior to some fundamental happening that will ultimately put massive pressure on the buyers to force this to the next level on reduced volume due to less available stock.

Btw Punters,Im fully of the opinion(and you probably wont be) that due to this accumulatory behaviour that this is why Ecn has preffered to evoke their ostrich effect in that it may as well be trade that one can effectively ignore.

The big difference between my interpretation and Ecn's(still a traders interpretation imho/appologies if I have offended Ecn) is that I see FUNDAMENTAL RESONING in this buying whereas Ecn see's a purely "ignorable" days trading.I say one cant ignore this trading as its creating accumulated support for the next level,the ONLY possible reason one is likely ignore todays trade.

If you are correct we will see a trend back to low 30's but even you are not willing to reflect on any further negative movement in the stock back to 20s

Its now become common knowledge that a broker(?)has recommended this stock to its punters as a buy at 33c.IF true(yes theres my disclaimer again!)I doubt we will see it drop below 33c and my guess(yes Im still thinking with guesses and the delphic process)is that even if we do see it drop back to this level we will certainly not see it revisit sub 30c.

BTW the previous Broker recommendation was 22c from dim dark memeory.

You can take this to pieces as much as you like but this is how I see the recent events as a COMBINATION between technicals and fundamentals which imho is much more powerful than either on their own.

Imo my support and posting on this stock and its consequent rise since my support(and others significant imput and support prior to mine and others)reflects the strength in this stocks trend.

Notice I did not say we are the cause of the strength.Im not stupid enough to think that we have had an effect on this stocks price.I mean how could one say we have influenced the likes of TWO,yes TWO,3 BILLION DOLLAR FUND MANAGERS in accumulating 23%+ of Aim stock not too mention Frank Brewer and Simon jones not insignificant individual holdings.

Imo you are not taking into account the fundamental support for this stock,certainly not apportioning enough value to the fundamental support at the very least.This has been shown by the reluctance of Aim to push through previous support levels that even we fundamentalists thought were under threat,particularly at the low 20s.

But this is your perogative.I suppose what I am saying,and this will always be the case between the fundamental and trader discussion/arguement on HC,that you are being almost purely technical.Im saying its now NOT appropriate to do this given that some of the more statistically significant liquidity(for traders anyway) has been suddenly pulled out from under you and you are simply reflecting the increasing desperation of traders to control what is rapidly becoming uncontrollable except by the guys that WILL control this stock in the future.

That being the North Sounds and JPMorgans of this world.

d.