what a difference management, page-30

a few musings....

given the share offer will I am sure be fully subscribed, and Hardman has $200 mil cash, the takeover will only cost Tullow about $670 million.

I think the market is voting with its feet - saying the offer is way too low - and expecting it to be sweetened considerably.

One things that concerns me that has not been mentioned often is that the bid may price Hardman fairly - if one is allowed to be very pessimistic about Ching and accept Potter's rather low ball view of Uganda, and accept that no one is remotely interested in Guyana - BUT - there is NO takeover premium at $2.02

I actually think Tullow will have to go to $3.00 with a full scrip option to make their offer fly. Otherwise - I see disaster for them (and Potter and Cotteril will be collateral damage) - and a win for us shareholders.

If any one party has been accumulating, it will be interesting in the next few days to see who?

There must be some significant arbitrage interest.