what a market

im back after a short holiday, i have to say im really questioning my membership in HC. you cant say much without being pulled up but guys like our chinese friend can get away with just about anything, it makes me think that some posters "report" certain posts to the moderators if they dont like the truth coming out, ie anything not singing the praises of something and your in the firing line.

well i have to say i can't understand this market.

they get rid of 70% + of the notes and its associated debt in one go and the market hardly even reacts. ok, the AXOG went up to $0.30 (on only a few hundred k vol) and the fully paid finished at $0.12.

lets assume the remaining holders convert the notes like the fund managers did, that leaves AXO with around 200m shares and around $13m in cash and no debt. so cash backing of around $0.065 per share, no debt and 700mt of 45% fe 0.06 V205.

so the market is totally discounting any chance of getting a partner or getting the finance. the port annoucement didnt even affect the stock, neither did the info on the enginering.

the market cap at $0.12 is around $24m fully diluted, with around $13m in cash. so the market is valuing all the work done so far and the resource at $11m!!!

you would think that the guys that sold the Balla Balla deposit to AXO might want to try and buy it back at these prices. they can buy it back for less than they sold it for and it has been drilled much more etc and the market is valuing it at less than it was purchased for?

imagaine this stock if someone like Kevin Willis from FMS was running the show?

i wish i had brought more notes because i didnt really expect the notes to go up so much, probably because i thought they might just try buy back the notes, not convert them and give away $0.25.

still, the last sale was at $0.30, so the market is valuing the equity of the AXO share given to note holders at $0.05. thats a bit unusual when the last sale was $0.12.

it looks to me like no matter what the management of AXO does that the market doesnt belive or trust them, if they did much more volume would have been traded.

my confidence in this stock is starting to decline, they really need to sort out the finance and the chinese because without either of those no matter what they do the price wont move, im now convinced of that.

i find it hard to beleive that the management of this company can now seriously ask the other AXOG holders to give up their trump card for $0.25 and 1 share. so far the management have not really delivered on their promises.

they had the chance to raise equity back in May 2008 and didnt, they probably also had many chances to get the finance sorted and they didnt. now they wany the remaing note holders to give up their security of a debt instrument so they can "try" and get the finance?

im not sure why the fund managers converted, maybe they needed cash? but i tell you one thing, i wouldnt be converting my notes because im not as confident as i once was that they will get the finance. the reason for that is that they are now relying so much on the chinese. i would love to be proved wrong, however, they might have done all the back ground work but the key is securing the finance.

if they do secure the finance etc and AXO ends up trading at $0.50 you are still better waiting for the $0.95 from the note.

anyway, i think they might have a hard time getting the notes from the remaining holders until they can display they have everything else sorted. i personally am done with trusting what company dirctors say, now i will only beleive something when its in writing and the market reacts to it.

so management, if you are reading this, get your chinese friends on board and the finance sorted, then you can have my notes. until then i will keep holding my big stick, just in case i need to use it.

and goodfool, if you are really that upset i suggest you call management to tell them exactly how you feel. in fact maybe you should have brought the notes not the equity, or maybe you only brought the equity because you didnt want to spend a little more for notes because you are cheap?

the next time i post on AXO it will be when they either get the EPA, finance or hebei on board. i will move on to some other threads and start having some fun on them.