what aki takeover would mean for cfe, page-9

Tokyo,

I would just be guessing about AKI, but my guess is No, CFE won't sell the royalty.

If there is a problem with CFE's business model, it is the 'lumpiness' and unpredictability of earnings and cashflow. We get jumps when assets are monetized, interspersed with periods of no cashflow. Retail and institutional investors don't like that. It does make valuing CFE difficult. CFE ends up being priced like a LIC (at a discount to NTA), rather than as a miner (at a premium to NTA, on the basis of 'predictable' forward earnings).

The tweaking of the business model to retain a royalty will, in time, create more predictable and ongoing earnings - the sort of thing that instos can feel comfortable with. Without that, pricing CFE on a forward earnings basis is nigh impossible. Unfortunately, the market prices CFE as being 'only as good as their last deal'. and however successful they have been in the past, the market can't rely on the deal-making can be repeated. But building up a suite of royalty streams can help change that.

Yaq