I simply don’t understand why KCN isn’t priced at least an extra dollar on its current SP ($1.84). The guidance given by Ross back in 2013/4 was 300,000 oz of gold per year, with the gold price then around USD $1200 oz. It’s now USD $1800 oz, and the Chatree mine is almost operational. How many gold stocks are priced above $2 with no prospect of being operational in the next two years? KCN has proven resources and is almost operational now! 300,000 oz at USD $1800 oz is USD $540m! Per year, every year…
Secondly, the longest unsuccessful case under TAFTA with the International Court of Arbitration was eight months… you don’t drag a plaintiff 24 months to tell them they have lost! This “kicking the can down the road” by deferring the Court’s decision by three months is by mutual agreement to enable the Thai Government time to save face and paint this as a win for all!
This stock has previously been over $10 a share, and whilst there is significant uncertainty as to how long leases will be extended, how long tax exemptions will be granted, given the proven resources and increase in the gold price…. What am I missing?
Every so often a certainty comes along…. Think Medibank, Telstra 1. Both of these were IPOs which listed inside the top 100 on the ASX, which meant that every index tracking fund had to buy them - from a weight of zero, regardless of price! They were pretty much guaranteed to increase in price!
Kingsgate isn’t an IPO, but for the reasons listed above, it seems to be a virtual certainty! Unless the Thai Government take their bat and ball and go home (like Argentina in the 80s/90s),but given their economy’s dependence on tourism, I don’t think this is an option for them.
What am I missing? Is there an elephant in the room? What could possibly happen to prevent KCN being $5-6 (or $10+!) in 4 weeks’ time? Even “Act of God” events like a nuclear war in the Middle East, would send the gold price through the roof and make it worth even more! I am trying to think of a scenario that is remotely plausible that would be detrimental but can’t.
Apologies for the naivety of this post, but any suggestions or speculation is most appreciated. The market isn’t stupid, it’s priced this way for a reason…. I just don’t get it.
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