At a very basic and conservative calculation the economics seem to look very favourable here.
market cap 43.2m according to hot copper. If we assume we sold the LEL shares at current market value of 19.27m (.56 x 34.41M) and subtracted that from MC that leaves the IO business valued at 23.93m AUD
Ignoring the first 2 shipments out of Peru as well as the lump premium whilst assuming IO is at 100US And costs at 80US that leaves 20us profit margin*250,000t per year = $5mUS per year *1.25 to convert to AUD gives us 6.25AUD per year just on the peru business and a PE on the iron ore business of 3.82 (23.93/6.25) and that’s not including the whooping profit of the first shipment when IO was 215us and excluding the premium on lump.
now if we only include stage 1 from the WA business which hopefully comes online next year IO @100us - c1 costs 69us leaves us with $31 profit margin * 400,000 = $12.4M US *1.25 = 15.5M AUD per year profit. (Not taking into account the realised price might be lower than spot 62 as the medium impurities)
now running peru at 250kt per year and Wa at stage 1 400kt per year with IO at 100 that leaves a total profit per year 21.75m AUD profit or a PE of 1.1 on the IO business. Am I missing something?
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