What am I missing, page-5

Adz, you are right when looking backwards at SRK, and the current SP reflects this.

About looking forwards, it is up to debate now.
PE plan sounds good, feasible with 2 steps to manage risk, considering the current volatility of iron ore market prices.
Note that 400k production in step 1 is not per year, it depends on how early step 2 preparation is done. e.g. if step 2 preparation is done in 6 months, then step 1 is completed in 6 months, and PE will move to step 2.

About the iron ore prices, many contradicted forecasts are projected. It depends on your tolerance of risk, which forecast you would believe in.

By the end of the day, the IO prices will follow the market rule of supply and demand.

Demand for steel is rising due to government money flooding the market. Steel production in China is suppressed due to Beijing winter Olympic, not due to market rule of supply and demand. By March next year, steel production in China will rise back, then IO prices rebound, and if PE preparation is done as plan, it is a good timing.