what are hc people going to do?, page-4

I will be buying at sub 48c if it gets there...looking to pick up 300k shares.
The way I figure it is if Longtom was a dud then Apache wouldnt waste-
a) the time (6days)
b) the money...my guess is 2 mill though I know little of costs for testing.

I thought before todays announcement we had an 80%+ chance of good success at Longtom...I've dropped this chance to around 40% based on todays announcement being quite poor and then considered Apache deciding to re-test it.

Then Im going to take into account Grayling which has from what I can figure a chance of around 30-40%.

So at 48c Ive decided if Longtom is a complete fizzer NXS will probably be priced at around 40c...this means if I buy at 48c I will lose 16% if Longtom is a dud...if longtom is succesful I will make roughly 60%.

Then Grayling is to be drilled...if Grayling is succesful Im expecting a share price of around $1.70 taking into account Longtom being a dud.
If grayling is a duster(aswell as Longtom) I think we could see a price as low as 20c.

So my sums now are buy at 48c...win on longtom make 60%...lose on Longtom lose 16%...odds of a win around 40%....if others think 40% is a bad number please tell me.
Win on Grayling make 200%...lose on Grayling lose 35%...chances of success at Grayling 2 in 5.

Lose on both grayling and Longtom....chance around 65% ...total loss 60% of outlay.
Win on both grayling and longtom...chance around 35%..total win 300% on top of capital.

So I have a 1 in 3 chance of turning lets say 100k into 400k.
I have a 2 in 3 chance of turning 100k into 40k.

If i placed this bet 3 times this what should happen.
1st bet -100k outlay...lose 60k
2nd bet - 100k outlay...lose 60k
3rd bet - 100k outlay ...make 300k

Overall situation with 1 in 3 coming off will give a return of capital of-

Outlay 300k
Losses 120k
Profit 300k
total gain = 300k-120k = 180k

So for me 48c or below is good buying territory....if I was to play odds like that Id do well

Yes i do own a few hundred k NXS already...and yes I will be buying 300k under 48c on Monday.

Hope thats not too confusing and welcome any comments on my late night arithmetic...to me the market like every decision in life is based on risk reward.