what are the chances of a commercial find ?

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    if one has done their research they will find the oil/gas here is quite fickle

    for example, COE recently drilled an uneconomic well

    for Lundin Petroleum, the Oudna field came on stream in November 2006 and averaged in excess of 19,000 bopd, gross, throughout 2007.

    The net oil production from the Oudna field dropped to 4,000 bopd for 2008; 3,500 bopd for 2009; and currently remains flowing, above expectations, at 2,750 bopd.

    The development of the Oudna field required special technology, consisting of a single production well supported by a single water injection well, both tied back to the Ikdam FPSO (Floating Production, Storage and Offloading vessel).

    It terms of operating profit, the Oudna field was excellent, with cost of operations (USD/boe) at $26.83 in 2009 and $22.42 in 2008.

    However, the Lundin Petroleum financial statements show capital expenditure on the project was at least US$80M.

    In 2007, Oudna earned Lundin $US$66,381 before tax; in 2008 (at peak oil prices of $116 boe) US$37m; and in 2009 (at bottom prices of US$55 boe) US$7m.

    If the 2008 profit is reduced by $40 per barrel or $20m, to remove abnormal oil prices, Lundin Petroleum made around $10m in profit for their trouble.
 
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