Earlier today we heard Leon give a reasonably good webinar session, providing a much greater level of detail around the company’s financials than we have seen before, and general updates on the status of things in play. These included;
1. Dukas drilling results expected to trickle in around June/July2. PV13 tie-in later this month (choked back initially to maintain flow)
3. Start of Range (ATP2031) drilling, later than previously planned at around June/July
4. Re-financing debt efforts, expected later this year &acceleration of debt repayments thereafter
5. New Gas Sales from 2020 onwards, with expected improved pricing achieved and announcement by 3Q this calendar year
6. Increasing Mereenie production and optimizing field productions & operations (and reducing costs)
The above are all very good, and Leon’s clear communication style is welcome.
But what of the future after this year?? We know from experience that almost all of the above were planned and commenced pre-work years ago, to now be in a position to add revenue/FCF & (possible) reserves later this year. So what is being done now, since we know these things take years, in order to add FCF & reserves thereafter?
Improving efficiency & debottlenecking are beneficial,but where is the catalyst for a decent SP lift, especially if Dukas underperforms(or takes a fair bit more work/capital to prove up) and Range comes in at the lowerend of the reserves? Current & potential shareholders don’t know, and hencethe SP lingers.
No planned drilling in 2020, despite Ooraminna requiring it by March (obviously a further delay request being prepared). Plenty of “growth targets” but the market isn’t told what they are. We may now be a producer, but without any forecast future dividends, we are still primarily an explorer.
It appears we may be holding onto our breath a little too hard on Dukas (which I along with all other shareholders pin hopes on) , but before heading off to Asia to roadshow the company, I think the growth narrative may need some more work.
Happy to be corrected, especially if anyone thinks I’m being a bit negative (which I’m typically not, ironically).
