"The risk is that the properties fall 25% in value and wipe out...

"The risk is that the properties fall 25% in value and wipe out all the equity.

This is probably a 1 in 3 chance in my estimate"

The few reports I've found from Japan seem to indicate that property prices (but not necessarily rents) are holding up quite well. This is backed up by the return of inflation (even if small by our standards).

What makes you think it has a 33% chance?

Thanks for the reply, I wasn't sure if there was anyone else out there actually thinking about the fundamentals of RJT!