What are we expecting to hear tomorrow?, page-30

"We have been told that the criterion (note the singular) for commerciality in this environment is proven resource of 200mbbl. If your technical appraisal tells you that this criterion has been met, (even if you are only halfway through your programme!), then how can you NOT declare commerciality?"

Gilbert below is from Caths Q and A and IMO at this stage 1 and 2 have likely been met but untill 3 gets established by interference testing between wells there can be no DOC , that will require at the very least BEL 1 and probably one or two more appraisal wells, at this stage they have only put intruments in SNE 3.




Three  key  questions  must  be  answered  before  a  discovery  can  be  declared  commercial. These  are:

1.  Volume:   Is  there  sufficient  volume  of  oil  in-place?

2.  Deliverability: What  is  the  deliverability  of  the  oil  from  the  reservoir?

3. Connectivity: How well connected is the oil reservoir over its total areal extent?

To date FAR and the Senegal joint venture have achieved substantial progress in addressing point 1, and our evaluation program is delivering results that are helping to determine points 2 and 3.   

Volume: FAR announced a revision to the contingent resource estimates for the SNE discovery on 8 February 2016. The result was a 60% increase in the 1C contingent recoverable resource to 240mmbbls (gross). The Senegal joint venture operator Cairn Energy has repeatedly stated that economic analysis has determined the Minimum Economic Field Size (MEFS) for a SNE standalone development is >= 200mmbbls (gross). The size of an oil field is extremely important in determining its commercial viability. If the field size is too small it could possibly remain undeveloped until sufficient volume of oil is determined to support a future development.  

Deliverability: This refers to the rate at which the oil flows from the reservoir. This has a crucial impact on the number of wells that may be required to be drilled into the oil field to underpin field development (hence project CAPEX). A flow of two key reservoirs in the SNE-2 well was highly successful. The upper, thinner sands that will be housing the oil as we move away from the crest of the SNE field are being flow tested in the current well, SNE-3.  

Connectivity: Understanding the connectivity of the reservoirs in the SNE field is critical in optimising the development plan to extract the oil. If the field is compartmentalised then oil may not flow freely across a reservoir and this may require additional wells to extract the oil. The high quality 3D seismic data over the SNE field appears to show a relatively straightforward “container” of oil, but additional tests during the drilling campaign will be run to ensure this is true.


The bold lettering is mine and says it all IMO and the drilling campaign is not necessarily restricted to the first 3 appraisal wells.

Cheers Whisky