Borrowing from the XJO thread, and starting a bit of a daily...

Borrowing from the XJO thread, and starting a bit of a daily chin wag.

Certainly not trying to guide or dominate this one, happy for others to start the daily thread, I guess the German and Hellhagi will have the jump on us.

But if you look at the XJO thread and the contributors it is an ecclectic mix of information, analysis, facts, and humor.

So what are we in for today holders.

Copper took a small slide down to $2.84 (at least that was the price level when I fell asleep), but happily woke up to re-surgence of the spot price just under yesterdays levels at close of trade. Oil down which was supposedly a catalyst for commodities sell off, AUD just under 85c, another catalyst for commodities drop.

I am perplexed by this logic.
- A falling AUD has no bearing on a company thats business brings in revenue and costs itself using the USD, however, the counter argument is, that here is a general retreat from O'seas investment that should return when the AUD stabilises, but at 13c, how much of a discount do you see there is to apply to TGS.
- Falling oil coal, leads to cheaper energy, and copper cathode production is energy intensive, almost 40-60% of our cost base, again the market prices the spot Cu price down taking into account the fall in cost of production, but in ignores the lag.

Whilst the fall in energy costs strengthening US$ and falling aud are short term pressures on the share price, long term should these conditions prevail, and the spot price CU hold, they are very positive to the profitability of Tiger. If All in sustaining costs are predicted by Cannacord to prevail in 2015 at 1.40ish and spot copper stays at around $3, we are talking close to $100mio US before interest / tax for 2015, with Cash at bank of about 20-50mio depending on further development expenditure, and debt at $180mio. Yet we are valued at $140mio?

For context, Sandfire NPAT last year was $75mioAUD, they have debt of $150mio, but are valued btw 600-700mio.

Tell me what I am missing, but surely there is a large disconnect. My gut feel is there is a large discount being applied to the debt burden taken on board and the HMS money machine being switched off has sent nervous investors to the sidelines to watch SXEW performance and deliberate. Sovereign risk was always there. On top of this pressure further exacerbated by falling commodities, end of the world (China) doomsayers, and the shorters taking advantage of the falls.

But remember if the company shows in the next 2 qtrs that the SXEW is performing at forecast cost i.e aisc under / around $1.50-$1.70, then secures /consolidates and long term debt facility, this stock can swing back very quickly.

gltah