Im no bio expert but to reduce my feeling of 'gambling' I have tried to understand what this business (and sienna is/were) about. I can see that they have been executing on their business plans and BD1 is likely to continue to (as i have faith in the integrity of the board and what they share via announcements makes sense to me, and i can track their milestones against what they said they were up to). I had both BD1 and Sienna (and Race Oncology also) - i wouldn't be surprised if Subb2m gets used in Race breast treatment activities to monitor cancer growth in the future (just seems like the stars are aligning). The merger with sienna made absolute sense to me. Some random thoughts below: 1.Bard1 now has a small revenue stream (from HTert) and this is growing as can be seen by yesterdays announcement and high likelihood of more to come soon as can be gauged by recent announcements. 2. the 'tech' BD1 picked up from Sienna is amazing - SubB2m has, in the lab, a 100% sensitivity and specificity for mid and late stage cancer and 95% sens and 100% spec for early stage (that is amazing technology and they have the world wide exclusive license!). Subb2m is also the product they intend to use to 'monitor' growth of cancers which is incredibly important as there is a risk in developing a test which detects cancer early - the risk is that it can lead to over treatment as many cancers detected early don't grow....they just sit for years (that is my loose understanding). so having a blood test for early detection will pick up lots of cancers and possibly lead to over treatment in a bunch of them but subB2m will help to monitor growth in the cancer and how various treatments are helping or not etc - gold (and one step ahead). 3. Exonett looks, from the BD1 website like its likely to be launched soonish - a product which is '1000x' better than what's currently in the market (see my previous post) in a market worth Billions over the next few years...- and exonet is just the start of what they can do with the Siennet tech. A potential treasure trove. 4. Ovarian test has been derisked with the luminex platform - and now apparently breast is going to follow quickly.... multi billion dollar markets (and BD1 now has a clear channel to the market as a result of already selling HTert globally. 5. Prevously Bd1 had some good/interesting results from cancer treatment in mice (but i think they shelved it to focus on their 'detection' tests, not treatment. However i notice a new word in their last quarterly when describing what BD1 is about - 'theranosis' which i believe means treatment of cancer....with all the tech they have above and additional resources from the merge with Sienna and the collaborations with other private companies/universities etc they can continue to expand the scope of what they do. I feel they have a reasonably clear view of prioritising what they are taking to market first, second and third etc...so hopefully they are not trying to juggle too many balls atm. looking forward to the AGM to help my view on this.
The above is just my views and I can see that they are trying to build a first class biotech company - to do this quickly they need capital as its not cheap to keep running/growing the business with minimal revenue. They need investors with DEEP pockets and as such i get their argument that DEEP pocket investors don't pay much attention to biotechs with 2.3billion shares on offer at .025c a share (u don't get much more speccy than that). After consolidation there will be 75milllion shares at .70c (roughly). BD1 has some amazing technology - to get it from the Lab into the market is gonna cost heaps - therefore broadening the deep pocket investor numbers makes sense and therefore the consolidation makes sense to me. But as i said before, if you don't trust management I'd sell, cause they will take/lose your money one way or another. I have held BD1 for probably 3 years (bought too early) but i think the time is coming. I watched PNV's rise from the sidelines for a long time before getting in and i see similarities here. I'm fully on board. cheers if you managed to read all this.
BD1 Price at posting:
2.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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