What are we worth?

From LSE:

As I thought I messed up but then I read this......
Hello there I want to put the potential of our acreage into a few easy facts and figures and the hopes of what icewine#1 will hopefully show in their core samples so as everyone can have a better understanding of what to look for. I have used Eagleford as the basis for my research and cross referenced with data and information about the potential finds on the north slope and more importantly project Icewine.
There are several crucial factors which make a shale plays attractive.
* Thickness, Icewine's HRZ average is approximately 40' thicker as compared to Eagleford.
* Porosity, Based on reports from other exploratory wells and confirmed by the flushed out core I am expecting around 13-15% porosity so approximately 30-50% higher than Eagleford so more fluid per equalivilent sample size.
* Mineralogy (brittleness), Organic Richness and Thermal Maturity, The source rocks and the type of matter contained within them determine the type of shale play and how they balance together. At Eagleford in the northern section there is mainly crude oil. The middle section consisting of natural gas liquids and the southern section is heavy with natural gas. When I approached my research into the Icewine acreage I noticed the same type of pattern. To the north there is mainly overly mature gas and to the south under mature finds. We needed to see between c1-c5 hydrocarbons in play during the drill to fit within the thermal maturity model. Higher shows would have indicated that we were away from the sweetspot. This is why I believe the High Radiation Zone (HRZ) within our acreage is primarily on the sweet spot and where vapour phase oil should be in place.
* Pressure, as per the majority of drills into the HRZ the pressure is high and was confirmed with the multiple kicks of high pressure whilst drilling beyond
So with all of the known information being favourable so far and the RNS data confirming that we are sitting within expectations, it is purely now down to the type of rock structure and can it be fracked? Given the known source rocks, this I think will most certainly be the case. This is the aim of 88e and Paul Basinskis concept thus far is being proven correct.
So what should we expect to see from the icewine#1 cores all being favourable and compared to eagleford?
(Putting in a table)
Key items are the
thickness. Ef 135' ice 170-200'
Porosity. Ef 10% ice 13-15%
Oil in place per well ef 2.95mmboe
Icewine estimation 7.5mmboe. The industry norm for shale plays is a 640acre figure EF 47mmboe my estimation circa 60mmboe mark.
Oil between 25-35api
Also remember that we have the 58' gas play in the kaparuk sands which should be a 'wet gas' based on depth and pressure. Could be more...
So if the results come in at these levels what would that mean for the overall acreage prospects on going and potential recoverable figures?

CALCULATIONS

Based on my guesses (DW said probably in the ball park...) so porosity 15% and thickness at icewine1 of 170' would give 140mmbls recoverable over an industry standard of 640 acres for shale plays (80 acres per drill) each unconventional drill worth about 7.5mmbls recoverable... 272,000 acres 70% drill able allowing for permit exclusion areas 190400/360= 530 drill sites so 530drills X 7.5mmbls= 3.975billion barrels
Allow for a 'supergiant find' over our land of conventional in one of the 7-10 migratory route channels (not dual 😘 say 2 billion conventional just on our existing acreage, so average of $1 per barrel over ten years costing...
If you take the 3.975 billion and divide by acreage of 272,000 it's what otto paid at $14613 per acre value if we buy more.... Coincidence? I think not...!!!
So circa 6 billion on 272000 acres? Coming to us say 20% of that until we want to then start producing for ourselves at say 500million mcap...
So 20% jv deal to $500m mcap would be half of our land gone, then minus costs of $20million per drill for exploration and $5million allowing for 35% rebate over the remaining acreage so 136,000/80 =170 drills... 5 @ circa $100million (exploration) wells... And $825million producing wells so $925million needed for us to produce over the remaining acreage... (Didn't connocophillips just release $900million for north slope production? 😉
So we need 20% free carry on jv, half the land gone to them for circa 3 billion pay off. We then with covering costs get 66% profit after cash injection for drills and production so we will stand at $2.5 billion cash and into production for ourselves then buy new acreage even at $2000 per acre will see us getting up to 228000 new acres for only $45million but at a profit of around $12000 per acre on any production so 228000 X $12000 = 2.7 billion on top of our 3 billion ish already in the bank...