what are we worth....

2017 Biotech M/A


Ive posted this report before however it is a good one to identify our true value. To recap Neu presently have the following

Phase 3 ready Retts Syndrome - effects approximately 1/10,000-15,000 females with a potential USA market alone of $1.5 billion annually. Global market approx. $2.5bill USD (USA is normally 60% of global)

Phase 2b ready Fragile X syndrome - effects approx. 1/4000 males and 1/6000 females with an approximate USA market of $6bill+ annually and $10 billion globally

TBI , autism, parkinsons etc etc etc - to be continued as can a host of other conditions involving CNS chronic neuroinflammation.

Average prices of orphan drugs are currently around $150,000 per patient per year ( Orphan drug pricing)

We have extended patents, less FDA red tape through orphan drug designation in both the USA and Europe.

Richard Treagus - prior to his days at ACR (in which he orchestrated a $670mill USD deal with Eli Lily) has a long and established career in pharmaceutical business development and in-licensing , in particular with sigma pharmaceuticals. So he is no stranger to wheeling and dealing with big pharma and in particular determining drug market value. It was his job to be on the other end of the negotiating table prior to ACR/NEU.

In 1992 Dr Treagus became an adviser to Roche in Johannesburg then medical director of Wyeth South Africa. In 1995 the direction changed when Wyeth appointed him sales director for Southern Africa including Kenya, Tazania, Uganda, Zimbabwe and South Africa. In 1998 he became head of marketing at South Africa Druggists which happily changed its name to Aspen Pharmacare the following year, where he was both head of sales and marketing as well as head of business development. In 2002 he migrated to Australia and joined Sigma as head of business development.

So - with all that at hand - what does that make us worth... a lot more than where we currently sit.

I'm leaning more toward a takeover (which is part of the reason for consolidation) than a partnering deal for my own reasons and I think the $400-500 mill USD mark is a starting point (just for t/o - partnering would be a $billion+). We will have a lot of interest lets just hope we have 2 or more big gorillas go for it and create some competitive pressure because greenfield neurology drugs like this are extremely rare these days.

Happy now to put my feet up and wait for a deal.