Holding Support. Morning Java. Thursday, 11 September, 2014
9/11 Anniversary. Terrible events which still reverberate occurred 13 years ago.
In America:
Nasdaq Composite +0.75%. New York Composite +0.24%. Russell 2000 +0.56%. Dow Industrials +0.32%. SP500 +0.36%.
Indices were generally weaker in the first hour of trade. SP500 started to move up just after 10.30. The Dow and NAZ continued to stutter for a little longer, then buying pressure took the indices up till just after 1.00 p.m. They then tended to slide sideways for the rest of the day to finish near the highs of the day.
Despite the good showing, the NewHigh/NewLow data isn’t confirming the bullish results. New Lows on the New York Stock exchange rose from 38 on Tuesday to 51 on Wednesday. Above 50 is my ‘panic’ level. To see a rise in New Lows while the index is rising is disturbing. Ratio NH/NL was just above the mid-line at 51.9%. A similar result in the Nasdaq, despite the Naz being up strongly +0.75$. New Lows rose from 57 on Tuesday to 65 on Wednesday. NH/NL Ratio was below the mid-line at 44.9%. Something’s not right with this market. I’m reminded of the line from Macbeth: “By the pricking of my thumbs, Something wicked this way comes.”
SP500 Chart:
SP500 is holding at dual support – 20-Day MA and Horizontal Support. It’s possible that this is set to move higher. The recent overbought readings have been worked off.
On the negative side, the MACD Histogram has dropped below 0, and other indicators are falling. The TSI hit just above overbought (+25) and has since fallen back. That usually means more downside. With NH/NLs looking odd, I think there’s more downside to come.
With the 9/11 Anniversary coming up in America, I wonder if the market will show patriotic spirit – and rise in the next session.
We’re also coming up to OpEx Week. OpEx is 19 September. OpEx Week is usually bullish.
Commodities:
While stock indices are all in bullish postures, the opposite is true of the Commodities (except Livestock). CRB Index down -0.75%. Industrial Metals Group -0.04%, stabilising after the previous sessions’s big falls. Copper up +0.5%, but other IMs were mixed. Aluminium, Lead and Nickel were all well down, while zinc and tin were up modestly. Iron Ore continues to fall -1.2%. PMs were also down -0.22%, and showed intra-day selling pressure. GLD down -0.5%.
Here’s the Chart for GLD:
Well – GLD has now reached my “slam dunk” level. The last two days, although both down, have shown some intra-day buying. So there have been some bottom feeders trying their luck. Let’s see how it goes from here. This is at or close to a short term bottom.
Oz stocks in NY:
BHP -0.17%, at horizontal support and showing intra-day buying pressure. Rio +0.54% and showing intra-day buying pressure. Westpac +0.94%. ANZ -0.2%, but showing intra-day buying pressure. EWA -0.11% and, yes, showing intra-day buying pressure.
It’s hard to be confident about the big miners (or the smaller iron ore miners) with the Iron Ore price falling heavily, but stocks don’t always follow the commodity price. Intra-day action in America was positive – so I think our stocks, including the Miners will be up today. I’m not expecting it to be any more than a counter-trend bounce.
Redbacka
(20min delay)