what can be done, page-8

A couple of thoughts.

1. Relenza should be written off to 0 value. GSK will not sell any more, they will promote their pandemic vaccine instead, for a slightly cheaper overall cost. Why BTA bought the CSIRO rights, I don't know. Why GSK developed the vaccine when they already had relenza is also inexplicable. LANI will capture a big part of the total influenza market (pandemic and seasonal) but not for some time yet.

2.I think the Board has lost control of the legal team and the process. The benchmark is the Gilead suit against Merck: basically same drug, same issue, settled in Gilead's favour within a year. Why is it different with BTA and GSK?

GSK don't care about an ongoing relationship with BTA.
US lawyers are expensive, but aggressive and outcomes focused. Here, the BTA legal team is a corporate itself. It has earned great dollars for 4 and a half years, and may be addicted to an ongoing revenue stream. There are far fewer such suits, so a reputation for aggression and outcomes is less important in little ol' Australia. They probably see this as a once in a decade opportunity. Maybe we need to see them launch another major litigation so they feel secure enough to do the BTA deal and move on.

Finally the drying up of Relenza royalties will mean less ability to fund the legal case. my guess is that this is the reason for the sudden cessation of buyback activity (which by the way, seems to have stopped about 10 days before announcing the trial suspension)

The delay to the trial date is a failure by BTAs board to manage the process. If they aren't yet ready for trial, what have they been doing for 4 years and 20 million? Settlement without the prospect of a trial date is very uncertain. Mediation has failed before, and with a further trial date delay the GSK team will be rewarded for not settling. Mind you, so will the BTA legal team.

People on this blog have been straining to read the legal tea leaves in a way that sees a BTA 'strategy': I can't see it myself. Like the movie says, show me the money.

I will wait until the 31 July - barely 6 weeks away.

If the mediation fails, i.e no result by the end of July, and trial date is deferred into the never never, its time to seek some explanations and maybe resignations from the Board. The AGM happens in October. The hard part is that BTA is a widely held stock, and small shareholders are easy to ignore. A nice telephone call here, an email there, all palliative because no information is ever imparted. Executives know that shareholders will find it hard to mount a proper rebuke.

Sad thing is that this is a company with real prospects.
Sad thing is that this is just what GSK will want to see. Also sad because it shows that small Australian R&D companies have not enough nous to mix it with the big players. Maybe we should stick to what we obviously excel in - digging dirt out of the ground.