SYR 5.48% 34.5¢ syrah resources limited

what can possibly go wrong?

  1. DSD
    15,757 Posts.
    SYR is the biggest bestest cheapest graphite (G) deposit ever. Period. It has potential to become so dominant that other producers will only exist because of political/strategic considerations/interventions. So why doesn't SYR have a mkt cap of 1500 million instead of 500m? Some considerations:
    Macro: Recent advances mean demand for flake will grow faster than even the most optimistic forecasts made just months ago. I've just read a Nissan Leaf uses close to 40kg G per battery. And EV usage is not the main game. So no doubts here.
    Production process: Very crude basic technology easily installed/replicated. Water dependent. No doubts here.
    Mine life: Already they've discovered enough G to last scores of years. Still finding more.
    Grade: Large parcels of 16-22% which is exceptional. Initial prod will focus on pkts of 20+% G.
    Quality: Has full range of flake sizes including highly desirable jumbo flake.
    Logistics: Near main road and can be transported by trucks to port.
    Viability: Accelerating demand combined with low COB will ensure margins are substantial. And i haven't counted the V2O5.
    Mr Mkt awaits to overdue BFS but it's unlikely to contain any surprises. If anything it's taken so long as management may have upgraded the design to produce far more G than originally planned.
    Political stability: Despite some armed resistance (see post 'trouble in paradise') Freelimo govt dominant and unlikely to be usurped. Hence, not a big factor.
    So why does Mr Mkt hesitate? Some may argue SP doubling in 10 mths is pretty good going.... and it is. If the SYR mine is as good as i and many others paint it... what is mkt concerned about? IMO it's because nothing in Africa is as it seems. My 6 month trip has blown out, and longer i'm here the more you realise everything is political. RSA is about to destroy its nascent CSG/LNG industry with energy minister today announcing amendments to extend its 'free carry' from 20% to 80% 'should ANC govt deem it'. The 7 week long platinum mine(s) strike is heavily politicised. Plus the hand of China is everywhere. On my trip to try and visit Lynx G mine in Zimbabwe 14 months ago, the signage at Harare airport is duplicated in Mandarin. (Plenty folk from China on plane back to JBG and i was fortunate to sit with one. He'd been to Oz, Angola and Zim and it was interesting/informative gaining his perception/perspective.) Re SYR. I reckon mkt is unsure what role Freelimo intends to play. Huge gas deposits have been discovered offshore Moz and discussions with Italian company and Freelimo continue how to mutually progress the find. The MPLA party is heavily involved in diamond mining and oil production in Angola. Will Freelimo want a similar deal? It may be that Freelimo will take no part in SYR. I hope so but we/mkt need assurance. The BFS on its own will probably add another 10+% to SYR SP. If SYR announce a mkt friendly outcome re future financing/ownership of Balama East&West... then we'll see a massive rush. Massive.
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add SYR (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
Last
34.5¢
Change
-0.020(5.48%)
Mkt cap ! $357.0M
Open High Low Value Volume
36.0¢ 36.8¢ 34.5¢ $2.576M 7.326M

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
13 393935 34.5¢
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
35.0¢ 100404 3
View Market Depth
Last trade - 16.10pm 24/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
SYR (ASX) Chart
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.