what % chance of merger going ahead?, page-6

Gottalovevmt,

That's a really hard question to answer, after all we're not mind readers. However if one was to have a guess, there's several sides that need to be looked at.

We all know JKA's assets are lower risk than TPT's (which is now Morocco alone) and I think due to this, the shareholder base is filled with people who aren't up for the kind of risk that TPT offers. For some people it doesn't matter how much upside there is, they will simply not have a bar of anything to do with high risk. I just hope the JKA holders can see the upside to having a high risk project in the companies portfolio, because even though its high risk, it's very very high reward.

Just by doing some basic calcs on what a fair value would be before the drill for TPT, and adding in their cash position, you can come up with numbers around $190m. The thing is though, people look at the current MC and put two and two together and instantly write this off as a poor deal. Because the MC is currently 39m, this therefore in the eyes of a number of JKA holders is a no go. It doesn't matter how undervalued TPT are, if the MC isn't showing it now, the deal in their eyes is terrible.

Now I have said that, it's not all gloom and doom. Whilst some do not have the abilities of long term vision, I think a lot do see the upside here and hopefully know what sector they're investing in, because we all have seen in the past that you usually have a re-rate closer to drilling, sometimes gains of several hundred percent. If TPT were to re-rate even 100% before spud, that's a MC of close to 80m which I feel would have 99% of JKA holders stretching out their arms welcoming the deal as being terrific. (Let's not forget TPT was at the 45c SP level toward the end of 2012)

So, what it really comes down to is how many holders can see the true value of TPT and if the SP isn't significantly higher by decision time, hopefully they can see the likely gains pre-spud. I'd give it a VERY likely chance for passing if the decision is made close to spud (within a few months maybe), but I'd be quite on edge if not and the SP is still around these levels. I feel too many people can't see past their own nose and if the SP doesn't increase from these levels by decision time, the chances of this going ahead don't look too good.