what changed

I agree about Redned - and lots more but I have to pose this question - what has changed?

FYI - Never fall in love with a stock and always keep an open mind. AVB changed when it confirmed the HGZ was on a scale that would enable it to rip it out and make some decent money IMO. This is a company starter not a company maker at this stage.

This event also highlighted the real potential of the other HGZ's along strike that have similar outcrops and identical mineral signature. The mining engineer I spoke to last week is now happy for me to share what he had to say.

One cheap option is to build a concentrator - circa $20M cost and modular so easy to scale up later. In other words the newly assessed HGZ would support this as a second option to the direct ship the ore option. He also noted that the latest drilling has likely added 8-10kt Cu to the HGZ and MAY have increased grade - meaning the old scope study is now out of date.

Cu price has appreciated considerably since then also. We are now looking at approx $250M of Cu in this zone in his opinion and the processing cost could be as low as $6 per tonne. All up they would lose a third of the value in getting this to market with a net $170M approx as gross profit. Of course there are variables and this is theoretical with no appropriate discount for uncertainties. I mainly cover gold so to put this in context 0.5% Cu is equivalent to 1gpt only at surface and cheaper to process by a large degree.

There are now other HGZ's to consider so this may well be the time this company proves itself - cash near term and huge resource upside. The MinEng was also keen on the low grade zone Cu as it is also profitable to mine and process. New processor modules could be added from free cash flow. This is why they now move to drill another 10,000m to go to the next level - increase the HGZ with a bit of a step out - see what is under it as well -check the low grade extensions and poke some holes in the other outcrops.

This last step is a no brainer also - but what scale has to be answered. I think there will be massive excitement in the other zones and hence the big purchases looking to play the upside I describe buoyed by the new status of AVB. The game has changed.

Now what has changed on the SP behavior?
I did not try to trade that action this morning because the behavior changed. Up on very strong bids - big chomps took 9M shares and, unlike the action during the correction back to the moving average, the reversal did not eventuate. I did not expect it to due to the technical indicators I spoke of in my last few posts. But I could have been wrong so was not set in concrete - had one eye on it.

The game has changed for AVB and now the correction of that huge run is probably complete. Elliot wave theorists - is that the B wave of the larger picture? Is the C wave going to be bigger? A large general market hit could change all this - the macro top down view has massive influence if that changes.

Take care everybody and best of luck,
CW