what could've been

What could have happened to Lynas:
- Build the LAMP in Australia, finish it on time and start selling rare earths while the price was still high (driven by high demand and low supply).

What has happened to Lynas:
- Delay after delay building the LAMP in Malaysia; start selling rare earths when the price has plummeted, plus the demand is subdued and worldwide supply increasing.

One would be optimistic about Lynas if it was just a matter of waiting for an economic upturn to generate increased demand and consequent rise in rare earth prices. However, because supply is likely to increase significantly, I think rare earth prices will likely be around the current level for the forseeable future, which is obviously not good for Lynas.

There was a WSJ article from last November that articulates the problems rare earth miners are facing:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324894104578106904089713138.html