Damn you viva.........I was going to comment tomorrow on how we...

Damn you viva.........I was going to comment tomorrow on how we managed to get thru a day without ONE post on TNY and you've spoiled my fun! ;o)

I don't think you can read anything into todays trading. It was low on volume and susbstance..........many day traders stuffing it around. I can't see that there are insiders playing this anymore -there's no guts in either direction. Whenever it looks like going below 5 someone always mops them up! I would be too but I'm well and truly bloated with em........not to the extent of your holding but not far off. We might be in the top 20 by now!

The situation with TNY is complicated by a number of factors:

- a market that punishes anything uncertain ( anything a dot com special like TNY does is "suss" to the market)
- a weak market full stop
- the lack of info available on EDS and ordinary quality of TNY's announcements.
- the uneasiness that a takeover of a larger company creates (ala BPC)..........where's the money coming from? . TNY have explained this ok and it is a smallish deposit followed by further payment linked to profitability. If it comes off it is by far best for TNY but in order for it to go ahead Ericsson will have to be very happy with the new business' prospects which adds further uncertainty as they must call the shots. This deal is conditional on TNY meeting criteria. All the more reason to celebrate if it does turn out cos ericsson have done your DD for you!

-we have many many people still taking losses on shares bought at 6-8c and panicking on further losses if bad news comes.

etc........................... The uncertainty IS justified. Let's not forget that TNY is up almost 100% in the last few months anyway and any disasters as far as this deal go can't have been kept totally quiet here and in NZ. I haven't seen anything to suggest insider selling

There are two main things I see as positive for this deal. 1) This stock has remained in an uptrend in a very weak market. The deal going ahead is still priced in to some extent and big sellers have not appeared- in fact I think there is still a little capping going on.

2) The quality of the people involved (Parker,Barry etc.......). Parker in particular (althogh a non-executive) as Chairman has a great reputation and as GM of Telstra Consumer and Commercial has the know how and contacts to pull this together.

IF we get a crappy announcement tomorrow or Monday then (although it won't help us) there would have to be some questions asked as to whether the market has been kept well informed. My email contact with Rick Pullia has been good and he has made it clear that if the deal looked in doubt at any stage the market would be informed (grain of salt ofcourse). On the weight of evidence I'm inclined to believe it will go ahead.

Then...........the market will suddenly wake up and realise that its scepticism was unfounded and the rush to buy will truly be something to see. This applies in reverse also ofcourse.

I'm hanging in there. This is one of those rare occassions where the huge upside (with a very good chance of coming off) justifies the risk of a less then perfect trade. Hopefully we won't have egg on our faces next week.

Cheers,

Ed.