Hi Wasa, putting emotion asside I'd say the free carried is the...

Hi Wasa, putting emotion asside I'd say the free carried is the way to go, but it is very hard to do it because of that feeling that it might come off and how much more you could get if you held on. I think that with the nearby permit in CVN being so productive there will be a lot of expectations of success with this one!

My average buy price for SUR is higher too, around 9c I think.. probably a reasonable time to buy now though.

My general observation with oil speccies has been that people get carried away with the potenitial and they can get pretty close to what you would think the sp should be after a success *before* the drilling results are known. I think your scenario of 12c pre results and 24c post results is a bit optimistic I would say the sp will reach 80-90% of the post success price before the reults are known, which would make the free caried scenario look much better.

I haven't done any research lately do can't comment on the figures of 12c and 24c.

Someone once posted that the way to make money on oil speccies is to buy them once the price has settled down, and sell them some time between spudding and the final results. having watched how this plays out a number of times I'd have to agree. you are almost gauranteed to make money on the rise that occurs due to the anticipation of success, regardless of whether it is a dry hole or a gusher. I suspect that if you did this over 10 holes (different companies) you would bank more profit than if only 1 of those 10 was a significant find.

Tony.