wintermute/Tony: Many thanks indeed for your considerate and...

wintermute/Tony: Many thanks indeed for your considerate and well thought-out reply, very much appreciated!
Whilst I agree that in general the "free-carried route" is the one to go, my basic question here is more like: On the first well/drill one might be willing to take a higher risk, as there is always a second well/drill coming up behind it (and financing those drills by SUR is in place due to farming down their stake).
Or would a duster in the first well/drill automatically mean that there will be NO other run-up in pricing ahead of the second well/drill?? This is where I am so not certain/clear about!
Naturally, I would also like to hear from other holders their views about the ASSUMED prices of 12c and 24c.
Looking forward to reading some more comments.
Once again, thanks, wintermute!
wasa