What do people know about WAF's security arrangements?, page-16

How did you get 92c just for Sanbrado at POG of USD$1300? The DFS after tax puts the NPV at US$444M, which is about 52c per share.



If you pump all the post tag NPV numbers into a regression model, it will tell you the NPV at 5% goes up just a bit over US$80M for every US$100 increase in the gold price.

So the post-tax NPV of Sandrado should be around US$930M now. Lets subtract say $30M for the net cash generated so far and call it $US900M, which equates to around AUD$1250M: around a 45% premium to today's market cap.

The big unknown upside for me is the impact of the gold price on reserves and the mine plan. The reserve estimate was at $USD$1200 gold.

Then there is likely some value to the Toega deposit beyond the $10M they paid for it, as well as exploration potential.

On the downside, there is of course the risk that some of that gold never makes it out of the ground, for operational or security reasons.

Also there is the (probably greater!) risk management blows the profits from Sanbrado on over-priced acquisitions.