I don't see the main risk to be stealing gold or blowing up the mine. I see to be violence against people actually. That may cause WAF management to stop production for the safety of the workers and staff. That means no cashflow, no debt repayments... and eventually WAF has to surrender the asset.
One event that would likely trigger this is an attack on WAF staff in convoy to Sanbrado. (SEMAFO stopped operations when this happened to their staff last November and still haven't restarted it, although they are planning to in Q4 2020.)
So I'm just trying to assess the risk of that. The DFS says recruitment of locals was to be from Ouagadougou, Nedogo and the immediate surrounding villages. It also says there is accommodation for 172 onsite. So that's encouraging as staff move to and from the safer central region. Also, it's not like a terror attack at a single village would affect the bulk of the workforce.
Another event likely to stop production would be an attack on the mine itself. Unlikely: the DFS had around 85 security staff planned and WAF said they increased this last year.
Kidnapping of expatriates would probably not stop production.
WAF Price at posting:
95.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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