What do the numbers tell us?

The only real figure for FY15 that FXL have released are NPAT and revenue. But if we combine this with the 1st half results I think we can get a good idea of what has happened in the second half.

First lets look at revenue:

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5
0	REVENUE
1		1h15	2h15	fy15	2H Growth
2	NIE	$  286.00	$  266.00	$ 552.00	-6.99%
3	IFC	$  116.00	$  121.00	$ 237.00	4.31%
4	CSME	$ 95.00	$ 85.00	$ 180.00	-10.53%
5	NZL	$ 27.00	$ 35.00	$ 62.00	29.63%
6	EL	$ 63.00	$ 42.00	$ 105.00	-33.33%
7		$  587.00	$  549.00	$  1,136.00	-6.47%

So revenue in the second half was down by 6.5%. Not great.

In the first half we had the following margins:

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4
0	MARGIN
1		Rev	Npat	Margin
2	NIE	$  286.00	$ 16.60	5.80%
3	IFC	$  116.00	$    5.60	4.83%
4	CSME	$ 95.00	$ 12.20	12.84%
5	NZL	$ 27.00	$    3.20	11.85%
6	EL	$ 63.00	$    4.90	7.78%
7		$  587.00	$ 42.50	8.62%

If we assume the same margins for the second half we get:

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4
0	MARGIN
1		Rev	Npat	Margin
2	NIE	$  266.00	$ 15.44	5.80%
3	IFC	$  121.00	$    5.84	4.83%
4	CSME	$ 85.00	$ 10.92	12.84%
5	NZL	$ 35.00	$    4.15	11.85%
6	EL	$ 42.00	$    3.27	7.78%
7		$  549.00	$ 39.61	8.62%

But this only gives a full year NPAT of $82.11m. So margins must have increased. A margin increase of 1.455% explains this missing profit.

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4
0	MARGIN
1		Rev	Npat	Margin
2	NIE	$  266.00	$ 19.31	7.26%
3	IFC	$  121.00	$    7.60	6.28%
4	CSME	$ 85.00	$ 12.15	14.30%
5	NZL	$ 35.00	$    4.66	13.31%
6	EL	$ 42.00	$    3.88	9.23%
7		$  549.00	$ 47.60	10.08%

It appears that FXL might be targeting higher margin customers, rather than just chasing revenue.

A cause for concern is that the current FY16 forecast of ~$92m is less than the annualised profit from 2H16 ($95.2m).