Well, it's taken all week where I can feel slightly confident enough {perhaps} to comment on the initial appraisal results
from SNE2. The above 2 images relate to where all the "action" and conjecture stem from. The typical reporting from
2 different entities has not changed...in fact it is bordering on even more obscurantism than before. Thank goodness
COP are not adding their 2 cents worth at the moment either...3 v 2 lots of inconclusive and in the main, lame brain detailed
reporting would be too much.. A hint guys.....give the so called "tight hole" policy the boot...the days of cloak and dagger
have outlived their usefulness and the laughs stopped a while ago. FAR got their extra acreage, the Senegal "Secret" is out
and we sit at $35 oil prices where most oilers are looking to get OUT, not IN. Oh well, so be it....keep the lack of uniformed,
articulate and decisive information where You think it best resides. In the meantime, and as best we can, we the punters will
try and figure out what the hell is actually going on.
On first blush what did I think about the result?? Bloody FANTASTIC. Of course a lot of "context" will have to be applied
in terms of what detail was NOT explained or maybe it's just me that can't interpret what actually WAS outlined. I don't
think so going on the threads since the start of the week..particularly in relation to the blockier v thin sands of SNE2. I will
say this much, so far, imo, in relation to SNE2 results.
1. The 1C of 150 mmboo within the main structure has all but been confirmed.
2. The Minimum Economic Field Size {MEFS} of 200 mmboo has all but been confirmed.
Prior to the result, I predicted 2 x 13.5m blocky sands and 9m of thin sands net pay, giving 36m net oil pay...the gross
oil pay was 8m greater in SNE2 v SNE1, perhaps the net pay was increased to 40m, perhaps it wasn't. We do know that
a TOTAL of 27m net pay was investigated over both sands giving a net pay return of {11.5/12m blocky sand{s}} and {3.5m/
15m net pay thin sands}. Total net pay of 15m returned out of 27m investigated. 12m of what was thought deliverable over
these 2 sections were in fact NOT. Also, a further 9m-13m of the original 36m net pay {36m being in SNE1...it maybe 40m for
SNE2} were either NOT investigated or were investigated and deemed non productive. So, out of a possible 40m net pay in
SNE2, only 27m were investigated, 15m deemed productive. No issue with this figure if only 27m were investigated...not every
single meter of expected net pay is going to deliver, that's normal. But what of the other 9-13m if in fact SNE2 was targeting
36-40m net pay? Is this perhaps one of the remaining 2 blocky sands that was not tested and if so why not? As the first and
perhaps most critical well, surely BOTH blocky sands were tested. If that be the case then, why were not 3 DST's included
in the report. ie. 1 coming up empty, 1 delivering at 8000 bopd and the other delivering at 1000 bopd.? Could it in fact be the
case that the LOWEST of the blockier sands may still not have been completely above the OWC in the SNE2 reservoir and as
such was not tested? IF you look at the above schematic, SNE1 intersected the 2nd lowest blocky sand...the lowest was still under
water and continues to be under water moving west towards SNE2. There are only 2 possibilities. Both blocky sands {S540 & S520}
are in fact contained above the OWC in the SNE2 well and were both tested {why wouldn't you test both} with the result that we
got 11.5m net pay combined out of the 2. So, for a 36-40m net oil pay figure, 27m ONLY was deemed "prospective" with only 15m
in the end PROVING productive....11.5m blocky, 3.5m thin. OR somehow or other the LOWEST of these blockier sands is STILL
below or partially below the OWC in the SNE2 well "window" and as such could NOT be tested? It is hard to imagine SNE2 NOT
being drilled where both of the blockier sands would be above the OWC and hence capable of both being tested...yet stranger
things have happened....
At least one poster seems to have come out on the positive side of this question ;
"
A drill stem test (DST) OF A LOWER principal oil reservoir unit over a 12m interval (~11.5m net) flowed oil at a maximum stabilised constrained rate of ~8,000 bopd on a 48/64” choke. The interpreted unconstrained flow rate of this interval is greater than the testing equipment capacity of 10,000 bopd. This result confirms the high deliverability of the principal SNE reservoir UNITS."
This is the part I like ( capitals mine) the have only tested ONE of the lower primary UNITS I wonder how many primary units there are, at least two anyway..
Whisky thinks that only 1 of the 2 blockier sands {referred to as Principal Units or Reservoirs} has been tested. I seem to concur
with this also.....9-13m of previous net pay seems to have gone missing, there were 2 DST's reported not 3 etc. But I am leaning
more to the theory that somehow the LOWEST of the primary units/reservoirs/sands was NOT tested because it couldn't be.
Here we go to the "wording" again..sigh.... "A DST of a LOWER ....read not the LOWEST principal oil reservoir were tested. And
also from CNE...."This confirms the high deliverability of the Principal Reservoir Unit in the SNE2 well". "Unit" as in singular, from
their release, not plural. Why couldn't they just come out and say 1 of the 2 principal units was tested, would have made it all
very clear to begin with. IF both were above the OWC line then you would have tested both surely.It is the first appraisal well
after all and the maximum amount of testing was and should have been allowed for. It may have been tested and simply reported
as such....2DST's incorporated into 1 with the net effect of 11.5 net pay from BOTH blocky sands. I don't think this would amount
to best practice appraisal/reporting if it were the case. No, the LOWEST of the 2 PRIMARY sands is still partially underwater
or that close to it that only the higher of the 2 blocky sands was tested would be the theory that I would go with. Scale on the
maps/schematics is confusing. SNE2 lies 3km west of SNE1, is that enough distance to finally incorporate or make sure that
the LOWEST of the 2 blockier sands is above the OWC in the SNE2 well?......You be the judge on the 2nd map above. In
short, SNE2 approx 40m net pay.....15m tested in thin sands, 12m tested in blocky sands...still leaves 13m unaccounted
for.... is this the LOWEST blocky sand untested or has it in fact been tested giving us 11.5m net pay out of 25m of blocky
sands tested? The only reason I can see the other blocky sand not being tested is because it is still underwater or they
simply decided to test 1 of the 2 sands only {for whatever reason escapes me}.
Anyway, let's leave that to one side for the moment and assume no further upside to any net pay along the entire structure
of the Primary Reservoir Units that lie UNDER the gas cap, or more specifically, to any future wells that are drilled to the West
of SNE2. Around 11.5m net or 8000 bopd is all one can expect from any well that may be a future producer along this trend of
the structure. I predicted or hoped for 4000 bopd from EACH of the 2 thicker sands, or 8000 bopd combined. We appear to have
garnered 8000 bopd from just one of those thicker reservoirs. As a comparison to Mahogany1 appraisal well.....it flowed 5200
bopd from a 17m interval on roughly the same choke I believe. That is some decent pressure regime there!
Confirmation of correlation of the principle reservoir units between SNE-1 and SNE-2 with the primary reservoirs occurring in the gas cap as predicted. "Under" the Gas Cap they mean... at least 3km of "connectivity" confirmed between those 2 wells already, under the 7-8km gas cap.
Pressure, log and seismic data indicate that the hydrocarbon column contains limited segregated reservoir-seal pairs within a continuous connected pressure regime. Even better news...appears to be no compartments within the
sands as well as being continuous between reservoirs 1&2.
2 VERY important pieces of info here {Thanks Guys
}. Connectivity BETWEEN the reservoirs and NO significant
compartmentalisation WITHIN the reservoirs. A handy piece of early news if one wants to extrapolate the number of
possible potential wells that may be incorporated under the gas cap that contain your primary producers over the life
of the field. Actually once again, in relation to the 1st piece of information " confirmation of the principle reservoir units
between SNE1 & SNE2".....there was only ONE primary thick sand uncovered in SNE1, the "higher" one.
The thin sands or 3.5m net that produced 1000 bopd was the "disappointing" figure to come out of the wash. In this
section of the reservoir, 35-40% of the total sands produced just 11% of the volume. It is to the East of this structure
read SNE3 {East of SNE1} where these sands will become the predominate producer as we step out further east. Yikes!
Cause for concern? A wee bit, considering the "primary or thick" reservoirs {the 8000 bopd future producers} will not be
present around SNE3 or on the western side of the flank in Lower Bellatrix. SNE3 is where we hope to firm up the 330 mmboo
2C away from the 1C of 150 mmboo under the gas cap.
A few points regarding the thin sands SNE2. Those sands can be expected to double in quantity at least as we head out into
the oil leg further east. Hopefully in thickness and expected net pay as well. They were mixed in with quite a bit of mud in
SNE2, hopefully they become "cleaner" as we proceed further east as well, The half choke size leaves some leeway to increase
the flow rate should a higher choke size be deemed more complimentary/acceptable in the eastern part. DST equipment was
deemed less than satisfactory also for SNE2 thin sands. Whatever the case, those thin sands should and have to deliver more
than SNE2. We should also however expect less assistance from the water/gas pressure in this neck of the woods v SNE2 also
which may counteract the positives somewhat mentioned above. Nothing that gas/water injection cannot alleviate however
further down the track. Anyway, the important takeaway for me is that we knew that the bulk of the resource was going to
come from under the gas cap where the "thickys" are located and the mopping up was going to be out east to get to the 2C
of 330 mmboo. 8000 bopd from an 11.5m interval has certainly put that concern to bed. Anything from 3-4000 bopd out
east should close the chapter on 2C 330mmboo being achieved imo. I still contend that Lower Bell will be where any resource
upgrade will come from, unless SNE3 or later down the track SNE5,6 etc {West of SNE2} return to the upside. I am open
to surprises however. All good from my perspective, my money is safe regardless ,and no amount of hype or pre-expectations
regarding the 1st appraisal results can beat that.
Of course one well doth not make a summer and it is the first in a series, but from the blockier sand{s} of SNE2....
what a BELTER. I will attempt from my layman's perspective to put some "meat on the bones" as it were and try to
extrapolate somewhat from only 2 results from SNE2, however fraught with danger and inaccuracy, to put some
numbers out there. It is how I have reasoned the 1C and MEFS are in the bag already from the primary reservoirs
contained under the gas cap. It is my interpretation only, probably in all likelihood riddled with errors, but it floats my
boat for me at least, at this stage. Take it as you will ;
The Gas Cap as far as I can work out is about 8km across. I contend that we may get 5 producers here....all of which will
contain that nice interval of 8000 bopd/11.5m. One producer every 1.5km apart. It may be less or more, but 5 is what I have
settled on in this part of the structure. SNE1 & SNE2 show strong signs of being connected...I see no reason why SNE2 would
not be connected to SNE4-6 through this interval. 9000 bopd was produced from SNE2 on a 48/64 choke. Open choke or
unbridled flow may produce 10000-14000 bopd, who knows, although at those rates reservoir integrity/life would in all likelihood
be compromised. What flow rate would produce a 20 year life for that well? 7000 bopd? Assume 7000 bopd x 5 wells x 20 years
= 255mmboo recoverable, 200mmboo being the MEFS. There is your 1C & MEFS from that structure alone. Most wells can
produce at a maximum flow rate for 7-10 years before declines set in and that is sometimes around 1% per month....8 more
years after maximum flow curve and its depleted. I also assume here that all 5 wells will encounter at least the same interval
as in SNE2 @8000 bopd sweet spot as well as 1000 bopd from the thin sands. IF SNE4,5,& 6 were to include the 2nd blockier
sand {possibly omitted from SNE2} then flow rates of double could not be discounted from these wells. In which case, I see
possibly 350mmboo being extracted from this structure under the gas cap alone.
Can we see 5 producers out in the eastern section producing say 10-15 000 bopd? as well as the 5 producers under the gas cap
producing 35 000 bopd over 20 years? If so then the main structure as well as the eastern flank will produce 360mmboo total.
We of course await the numbers from SNE3 as well as the "later down the track" extra wells feasible under the gas cap for this
scenario to play out. It is a long game this one.....and then there is still the Lower Bellatrix or Western part of the flank to hopefully
come into play and shore up numbers more to the tune of 670m.
Regardless, the main structure, with a bit of extrapolation holding ,could alone produce between 200-350mmboo alone, going
on the numbers produced from SNE2.
In conclusion therefore, I'm comfortable that I'm not going to lose any money at least. That is a very important consideration
at the best of times, let alone in the tumult we find ourselves in today. Oil is in for a very hard time still for 6-9 months possibly,
the "thin sands" from SNE2 were underwhelming and that is important considering SNE3 is the next well at the starting
gates and world markets are a mess. No surprises re the SP in light of the "revealed" news and POO in particular, but that's a wall
of worry we have had to contend with since the discoveries over a year ago. No use commenting on the SP, the market is what it is.
The "main game" is in tact as far as I can evaluate it and at the end of the day, for me at least, that's what the 1st appraisal well of
many was meant to confirm.....regardless of world turmoil, POO, Doubts about thin sands, more CR's etc etc. Surely, these other
factors will have to "catch up" to where FAR and Senegal find themselves at this stage of the game......we are way ahead of the
"wall of worry" on actual results thus far I would contend.
GLTAH
(20min delay)