bottletop you say..
"I am trying to keep things really simple"
That's where you are going totally way off field and wrong. Climate change is not simple so please don’t cloud the issue with your nonsense and simplistic arguments (no pun intended). It’s by no means a pot of water. Stick to the relevant facts about the complex nature of the atmosphere and how positive/negative feedback loops together with the lag intervals involved that produces the observed outcomes. I’d welcome a discussion of that. But as you have shown, you would rather use simple models that even a child wouldn’t use these days to demonstrate how our climate changes.
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