Oil price forecasting is a hard task.... that is why so many...

Oil price forecasting is a hard task.... that is why so many analysts are making safe bets and practicing "sheep" theory...the fact is there are just too many variables that effect outputs.

For example if you look at supply vs demand trends alone (which many are) and ignore any sophistication around decline rates and under-investment/capex drop offs during price of oil weakness you would conclude prices will stay down for a long time. Additionally, most models are ignoring the OPEC cartel's potential influence when they choose to intervene.

On that, based on the shift in language over the course of 13 months (see below) I think it is increasingly likely that by latest mid next year OPEC will cut back supply, potentially with the cooperation of Russia.

Just as a thought exercise I collated sound bites since Saudi Arabia led a shift by Opec in November 2014 to defend market share against competing supplies.

Dec, 2014: Saudi Arabia said it would not cut output to prop up oil markets even if non-OPEC nations did;
Mar-Jun, 2015: The Saudis said they won't cut unless non-OPEC follows. Russian agreement appears unlikely;
Nov 2015: It was reported that the Saudis have indicated privately that the price of oil has fallen much further than they had anticipated and are ready for the oil rout to end (not surprising given the price of oil many OPEC members need to balance their budgets - according to FT this figure is US$60-80 because less will kill capex and lead to upward price volatility resulting in the reemergence of shale market share growth);
Nov 2015: Saudi Arabia pledged to work towards oil price stability; and,
Nov 2015: Russia, Saudi Arabia set up working group on oil, gas cooperation.

Anyway, I would be surprised if we didn't see oil in that $60-80 Saudi "sweet spot" during the second half of 2016. Here's hoping we see those prices even sooner.