The economy (USA and Australia) are both performing within expectations (the USA probably more so). The question remains knowing what to look for. It also pays taking a risk averse approach to debt (ie: staying well within manageable debt limits) and not getting carried away with things.
Manageable risk, informed opinion, detailed research (both acquired and self determined) a sensible and balanced approach to investment behaviour, and keeping a healthy balance in reserve are all important to the composition of one's outlook.
Peple like Sinclair continue to point to Friday night's employment figures involving only 32K growth. That, however, was the Payroll Survey. What then of the more recent and updated Household Survey which was contained in the same report and which pointed to a 600,000 payroll increase in July (closer to 400,000 when the same assessment criteria as what was used in the Payroll Survey are applied to the Household Survey).
I am happy to see the debate proceed - Volatile ahead. Nothing to be taken forgranted. Don't believe the figures without further detailed investigation, etc. What I don't like are the angular views expressed by some (Sinclair, chief among them) who, if you were to believe, is pointing to nothing less than an armageddon happening out there. And, in a nuclear winter, gold will not save anyone.
Simply put - gone are the days of true invesitgative journalism, editorial analysis, or in-depth opinion. Everything has become part of the 30-second spotlight.
And into this realm, economists have found their collective verve, to wax lyrical on everything, agree on nothing, and then claim accuracy after the event.
The dismal science is even more dismal for the fact that most economists are now conducting themselves as if shallow deep.
No informed analysis, almost no accuracy, and each and every month, a full and complete surprise.
The same argument applies to property - median prices are down (could be due to nature, composition, quality of stock, etc, amongst a range of other considerations). However, on average, per room prices are stable to rising (including in the eastern suburbs of Melbourne, where median prices otherwise appear to be falling).
My first training was as an economist and it amazes me how little heed is being applied by today's commercial economists to their original university training.
